Value Picks — Week 18

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

LAC @ DEN

Model: DEN 65.2% Line: DEN 85.9% 20.7-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ SF Disagrees with the line

Model: SF 63.1% Line: SEA 57.3% 20.4-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ MIN

Model: MIN 63.9% Line: MIN 82.3% 18.4-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ PIT Disagrees with the line

Model: PIT 54.6% Line: BAL 63.1% 17.7-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ LV Disagrees with the line

Model: LV 51.7% Line: KC 60.2% 11.9-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ NE

Model: NE 74.2% Line: NE 85.0% 10.8-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ LA

Model: LA 76.2% Line: LA 85.9% 9.7-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ ATL

Model: ATL 56.1% Line: ATL 63.1% 7.0-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ PHI

Model: PHI 65.6% Line: PHI 58.8% 6.8-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ CHI

Model: CHI 53.7% Line: CHI 60.2% 6.5-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ NYG

Model: DAL 54.2% Line: DAL 58.8% 4.6-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ CIN

Model: CIN 80.1% Line: CIN 75.9% 4.2-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ HOU

Model: HOU 72.0% Line: HOU 75.9% 3.9-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ JAX

Model: JAX 80.6% Line: JAX 82.3% 1.7-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ BUF

Model: BUF 83.4% Line: BUF 82.3% 1.1-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ TB

Model: TB 57.9% Line: TB 58.8% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line