Value Picks — Week 3

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

KC @ MIA Disagrees with the line

Model: MIA 58.4% Line: KC 71.1% 29.5-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ BUF

Model: BUF 82.1% Line: BUF 58.8% 23.3-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ NO

Model: NO 76.9% Line: NO 60.2% 16.7-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ NYG

Model: NYG 74.4% Line: NYG 58.8% 15.6-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ SF

Model: SF 68.1% Line: SF 80.3% 12.2-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ JAX

Model: JAX 65.8% Line: JAX 54.4% 11.4-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ PIT Disagrees with the line

Model: PIT 55.5% Line: CIN 54.4% 9.9-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ IND Disagrees with the line

Model: IND 54.3% Line: HOU 54.4% 8.7-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ DET

Model: DET 84.3% Line: DET 75.9% 8.4-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ TB

Model: TB 61.9% Line: TB 54.4% 7.5-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ CLE Disagrees with the line

Model: CLE 52.0% Line: CAR 54.4% 6.4-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ DAL

Model: BAL 51.8% Line: BAL 57.3% 5.5-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ WAS

Model: SEA 54.9% Line: SEA 60.2% 5.3-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ DEN

Model: LA 54.7% Line: LA 58.8% 4.1-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ GB

Model: GB 67.3% Line: GB 71.1% 3.8-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ CHI

Model: CHI 57.5% Line: CHI 54.4% 3.1-pt gap vs. the line