Value Picks — Week 1

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

ARI @ LAC

Model: LAC 61.5% Line: LAC 77.1% 15.6-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ TEN

Model: TEN 69.2% Line: TEN 54.4% 14.8-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ JAX

Model: JAX 86.7% Line: JAX 73.6% 13.1-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ IND Disagrees with the line

Model: IND 50.5% Line: BAL 60.2% 10.7-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ CAR Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 50.7% Line: CHI 58.8% 9.5-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ LV

Model: LV 51.4% Line: LV 60.2% 8.8-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ NYG

Model: DAL 50.3% Line: DAL 58.8% 8.5-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ CIN

Model: CIN 67.9% Line: CIN 60.2% 7.7-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ MIN Disagrees with the line

Model: GB 53.0% Line: MIN 54.4% 7.4-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ DET

Model: DET 62.6% Line: DET 69.8% 7.2-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ SEA

Model: SEA 63.3% Line: SEA 58.8% 4.5-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ LA

Model: LA 56.0% Line: LA 60.2% 4.2-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ PHI

Model: PHI 67.9% Line: PHI 65.8% 2.1-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ KC

Model: KC 60.1% Line: KC 58.8% 1.3-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ PIT

Model: PIT 57.7% Line: PIT 58.8% 1.1-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ HOU

Model: BUF 54.4% Line: BUF 54.4% 0.0-pt gap vs. the line