Value Picks — Week 19

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

LAC @ NE

Model: NE 80.6% Line: NE 60.2% 20.4-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ PIT Disagrees with the line

Model: PIT 58.4% Line: HOU 58.8% 17.2-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ PHI

Model: PHI 54.4% Line: PHI 67.2% 12.8-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ CAR

Model: LA 65.9% Line: LA 77.1% 11.2-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ JAX

Model: JAX 62.0% Line: JAX 54.4% 7.6-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ CHI

Model: GB 52.9% Line: GB 57.3% 4.4-pt gap vs. the line