Value Picks — Week 17

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

TB @ MIA Disagrees with the line

Model: MIA 62.3% Line: TB 65.8% 28.1-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ KC

Model: DEN 60.5% Line: DEN 84.1% 23.6-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ WAS

Model: DAL 56.8% Line: DAL 73.6% 16.8-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ NYJ

Model: NE 70.5% Line: NE 82.3% 11.8-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ CAR

Model: SEA 61.7% Line: SEA 68.5% 6.8-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ MIN

Model: DET 76.3% Line: DET 69.8% 6.5-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ LAC

Model: LAC 60.4% Line: LAC 54.4% 6.0-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ CIN

Model: CIN 64.1% Line: CIN 69.8% 5.7-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ TEN Disagrees with the line

Model: TEN 50.6% Line: NO 54.4% 5.0-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ LV

Model: NYG 54.3% Line: NYG 58.8% 4.5-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ SF

Model: SF 61.8% Line: SF 60.2% 1.6-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ ATL

Model: LA 69.7% Line: LA 71.1% 1.4-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ CLE

Model: PIT 64.1% Line: PIT 63.1% 1.0-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ BUF

Model: BUF 59.3% Line: BUF 58.8% 0.5-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ GB

Model: GB 57.6% Line: GB 57.3% 0.3-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ IND

Model: JAX 60.1% Line: JAX 60.2% 0.1-pt gap vs. the line