Value Picks — Week 9

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

BAL @ MIA

Model: BAL 50.4% Line: BAL 71.1% 20.7-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ BUF Disagrees with the line

Model: BUF 54.8% Line: KC 57.3% 12.1-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ DET

Model: DET 84.9% Line: DET 75.9% 9.0-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ GB

Model: GB 74.1% Line: GB 82.3% 8.2-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ NYG Disagrees with the line

Model: NYG 50.8% Line: SF 57.3% 8.1-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ NE

Model: NE 72.8% Line: NE 65.8% 7.0-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ WAS

Model: SEA 50.7% Line: SEA 57.3% 6.6-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ DAL

Model: DAL 54.2% Line: DAL 60.2% 6.0-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ CIN

Model: CHI 53.9% Line: CHI 58.8% 4.9-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ HOU

Model: HOU 51.7% Line: HOU 54.4% 2.7-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ PIT

Model: IND 62.7% Line: IND 60.2% 2.5-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ TEN

Model: LAC 75.0% Line: LAC 77.1% 2.1-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ LV

Model: JAX 59.1% Line: JAX 57.3% 1.8-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ LA

Model: LA 84.9% Line: LA 85.0% 0.1-pt gap vs. the line