Value Picks — Week 11

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

CHI @ MIN Disagrees with the line

Model: CHI 67.0% Line: MIN 58.8% 25.8-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ MIA Disagrees with the line

Model: WAS 53.0% Line: MIA 57.3% 10.3-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ NYG

Model: GB 61.4% Line: GB 71.1% 9.7-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ PHI Disagrees with the line

Model: DET 52.2% Line: PHI 57.3% 9.5-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ ARI

Model: SF 52.0% Line: SF 60.2% 8.2-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ JAX

Model: LAC 50.7% Line: LAC 58.8% 8.1-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ LV

Model: DAL 67.5% Line: DAL 60.2% 7.3-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ CLE

Model: BAL 64.5% Line: BAL 71.1% 6.6-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ PIT

Model: PIT 59.5% Line: PIT 65.8% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ NE

Model: NE 77.0% Line: NE 82.3% 5.3-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ ATL

Model: ATL 58.2% Line: ATL 63.1% 4.9-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ DEN

Model: KC 55.7% Line: KC 60.2% 4.5-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ LA

Model: LA 62.3% Line: LA 58.8% 3.5-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ BUF

Model: BUF 65.2% Line: BUF 67.2% 2.0-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ TEN

Model: HOU 67.1% Line: HOU 65.8% 1.3-pt gap vs. the line