Value Picks — Week 4

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

PHI @ TB Disagrees with the line

Model: TB 63.4% Line: PHI 60.2% 23.6-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ ARI Disagrees with the line

Model: ARI 60.1% Line: SEA 54.4% 14.5-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ NE

Model: NE 53.6% Line: NE 65.8% 12.2-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ ATL Disagrees with the line

Model: WAS 53.5% Line: ATL 57.3% 10.8-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ DET

Model: DET 86.8% Line: DET 77.1% 9.7-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ LV

Model: LV 63.4% Line: LV 54.4% 9.0-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ KC

Model: BAL 64.1% Line: BAL 57.3% 6.8-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ NYG

Model: LAC 60.9% Line: LAC 67.2% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ LA

Model: LA 55.7% Line: LA 60.2% 4.5-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ DEN

Model: DEN 67.9% Line: DEN 71.1% 3.2-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ HOU

Model: HOU 68.8% Line: HOU 71.1% 2.3-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ BUF

Model: BUF 86.2% Line: BUF 87.5% 1.3-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ MIA

Model: MIA 58.5% Line: MIA 57.3% 1.2-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ PIT

Model: MIN 56.2% Line: MIN 57.3% 1.1-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ SF

Model: SF 60.8% Line: SF 60.2% 0.6-pt gap vs. the line