Value Picks — Week 15

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

BUF @ NE Disagrees with the line

Model: NE 64.3% Line: BUF 57.3% 21.6-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ SEA

Model: SEA 67.6% Line: SEA 84.1% 16.5-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ DAL

Model: DAL 80.4% Line: DAL 65.8% 14.6-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ CIN Disagrees with the line

Model: CIN 56.7% Line: BAL 57.3% 14.0-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ HOU

Model: HOU 67.0% Line: HOU 78.2% 11.2-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ TB

Model: TB 59.1% Line: TB 67.2% 8.1-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ NYG

Model: NYG 63.9% Line: NYG 57.3% 6.6-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ KC

Model: KC 69.9% Line: KC 65.8% 4.1-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ NO

Model: CAR 53.3% Line: CAR 57.3% 4.0-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ CHI

Model: CHI 74.9% Line: CHI 71.1% 3.8-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ PHI

Model: PHI 78.6% Line: PHI 82.3% 3.7-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ PIT

Model: PIT 55.4% Line: PIT 58.8% 3.4-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ DEN

Model: GB 52.3% Line: GB 54.4% 2.1-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ JAX

Model: JAX 82.1% Line: JAX 84.1% 2.0-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ LA

Model: LA 67.0% Line: LA 65.8% 1.2-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ SF

Model: SF 83.5% Line: SF 82.3% 1.2-pt gap vs. the line