Value Picks — Week 13

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

DEN @ WAS

Model: DEN 51.9% Line: DEN 68.5% 16.6-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ DET Disagrees with the line

Model: GB 53.8% Line: DET 57.3% 11.1-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ BAL

Model: BAL 61.1% Line: BAL 69.8% 8.7-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ PHI

Model: PHI 61.2% Line: PHI 69.8% 8.6-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ CAR

Model: LA 68.7% Line: LA 77.1% 8.4-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ MIA

Model: MIA 73.9% Line: MIA 65.8% 8.1-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ NYJ

Model: ATL 51.5% Line: ATL 58.8% 7.3-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ DAL

Model: KC 53.7% Line: KC 60.2% 6.5-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ TEN

Model: JAX 61.6% Line: JAX 67.2% 5.6-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ SEA

Model: SEA 87.3% Line: SEA 82.3% 5.0-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ PIT

Model: BUF 54.5% Line: BUF 58.8% 4.3-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ TB

Model: TB 61.9% Line: TB 63.1% 1.2-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ LAC

Model: LAC 75.9% Line: LAC 77.1% 1.2-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ NE

Model: NE 70.7% Line: NE 69.8% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ IND

Model: IND 59.2% Line: IND 58.8% 0.4-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ CLE

Model: SF 65.9% Line: SF 65.8% 0.1-pt gap vs. the line