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🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

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2025 2026
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NFL Week 6

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Week 5 Storylines

🤝 A rare tie: New York Giants and Washington Commanders finished level at 27-27. 😱 Biggest upset: San Francisco 49ers over Seattle Seahawks, given only 33% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: New England Patriots at 84% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Denver Broncos cost themselves 2.07 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
HOU HOU 2-4 #7
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JAX JAX 4-2 #1

Houston Texans (#7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (#1) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2026-10-18 · 09:30 ET ☀️ Clear
HOU 34 – JAX 31
✗ model missed it · had JAX 61.1%
Thursday 2026-10-15 · 20:15 ET
SEA SEA 3-3 Away
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DEN DEN 4-2 Home
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 40.5
SEA 14 – DEN 17
✓ model called it · had DEN 59.3%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET
CHI CHI 4-2 Away
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ATL ATL 2-4 Home
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome
Spread -1.5 O/U 51.5
CHI 31 – ATL 23
✗ model missed it · had ATL 52.7%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET DIV
BAL BAL 4-2 Away
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CLE CLE 4-2 Home
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.0 O/U 39.5
BAL 10 – CLE 13
✗ model missed it · had BAL 59.8%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET UPSET DIV
TEN TEN 1-5 Away
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IND IND 2-4 Home
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear
Spread 6.5 O/U 43.5
TEN 26 – IND 20
✗ model missed it · had IND 74.3%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET DIV
NYJ NYJ 2-4 Away
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NE NE 4-2 Home
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear
Spread 7.5 O/U 43.5
NYJ 19 – NE 26
✓ model called it · had NE 89.6%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET
NO NO 2-4 Away
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NYG NYG 3-2-1 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread -1.5 O/U 46.5
NO 34 – NYG 27
✗ model missed it · had NYG 57.9%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET
CAR CAR 3-2 Away
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PHI PHI 2-4 Home
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.0 O/U 39.5
CAR 25 – PHI 14
✗ model missed it · had PHI 52.3%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET
PIT PIT 4-2 Away
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TB TB 1-5 Home
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 38.5
PIT 26 – TB 19
✗ model missed it · had TB 58.5%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 16:05 ET UPSET DIV
ARI ARI 2-4 Away
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LA LA 2-4 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread 12.5 O/U 51.5
ARI 18 – LA 16
✗ model missed it · had LA 75.5%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 16:25 ET DIV
LAC LAC 0-6 Away
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KC KC 5-0 Home
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear
Spread 7.5 O/U 41.5
LAC 6 – KC 22
✓ model called it · had KC 71.4%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 16:25 ET
BUF BUF 5-1 Away
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LV LV 3-3 Home
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome
Spread -5.5 O/U 53.5
BUF 33 – LV 30
✓ model called it · had BUF 70.8%
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 20:20 ET
DAL DAL 2-4 Away
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GB GB 4-2 Home
Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear
Spread -1.5 O/U 53.5
DAL 13 – GB 23
✓ model called it · had GB 64.5%
Monday 2026-10-19 · 20:15 ET
WAS WAS 1-4-1 Away
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SF SF 6-0 Home
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear
Spread 7.5 O/U 51.5
WAS 17 – SF 23
✓ model called it · had SF 68.0%