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🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

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2025 2026
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NFL Week 1

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Week 1 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: New York Jets over Tennessee Titans, given only 27% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Jacksonville Jaguars at 85% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: San Francisco 49ers cost themselves 1.66 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
NE NE 0-1 #3
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SEA SEA 1-0 #2

New England Patriots (#3) at Seattle Seahawks (#2) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Wednesday 2026-09-09 · 20:20 ET ☀️ Clear
NE 10 – SEA 13
✓ model called it · had SEA 64.0%
Thursday 2026-09-10 · 20:35 ET DIV
SF SF 1-0 Away
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LA LA 0-1 Home
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne AU 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.5 O/U 47.5
SF 27 – LA 7
✗ model missed it · had LA 57.4%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET
CHI CHI 1-0 Away
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CAR CAR 0-1 Home
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5
CHI 59 – CAR 37
✗ model missed it · had CAR 51.7%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET
TB TB 0-1 Away
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CIN CIN 1-0 Home
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain
Spread 3.5 O/U 50.5
TB 27 – CIN 33
✓ model called it · had CIN 67.4%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET
NO NO 0-1 Away
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DET DET 1-0 Home
Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome
Spread 7.0 O/U 49.5
NO 30 – DET 31
✓ model called it · had DET 63.3%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET
BUF BUF 1-0 Away
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HOU HOU 0-1 Home
Reliant Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome
Spread -1.5 O/U 44.5
BUF 36 – HOU 31
✓ model called it · had BUF 50.3%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET
BAL BAL 1-0 Away
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IND IND 0-1 Home
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread -3.0 O/U 48.5
BAL 41 – IND 23
✗ model missed it · had IND 59.5%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET
CLE CLE 0-1 Away
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JAX JAX 1-0 Home
EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain
Spread 8.5 O/U 40.5
CLE 10 – JAX 34
✓ model called it · had JAX 85.4%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET
ATL ATL 0-1 Away
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PIT PIT 1-0 Home
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear
Spread 6.5 O/U 40.5
ATL 13 – PIT 20
✓ model called it · had PIT 60.0%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET UPSET
NYJ NYJ 1-0 Away
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TEN TEN 0-1 Home
Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear
Spread 1.5 O/U 39.5
NYJ 23 – TEN 10
✗ model missed it · had TEN 73.3%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 16:25 ET UPSET
ARI ARI 1-0 Away
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LAC LAC 0-1 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread 8.5 O/U 47.5
ARI 26 – LAC 14
✗ model missed it · had LAC 63.4%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 16:25 ET
MIA MIA 0-1 Away
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LV LV 1-0 Home
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.0 O/U 40.5
MIA 13 – LV 27
✓ model called it · had LV 50.4%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 16:25 ET DIV
GB GB 0-1 Away
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MIN MIN 1-0 Home
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread 1.5 O/U 46.5
GB 22 – MIN 39
✗ model missed it · had GB 55.0%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 16:25 ET DIV
WAS WAS 0-1 Away
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PHI PHI 1-0 Home
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain
Spread 6.0 O/U 43.5
WAS 22 – PHI 24
✓ model called it · had PHI 60.4%
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 20:20 ET DIV
DAL DAL 0-1 Away
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NYG NYG 1-0 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5
DAL 20 – NYG 28
✓ model called it · had NYG 52.6%
Monday 2026-09-14 · 20:15 ET DIV
DEN DEN 0-1 Away
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KC KC 1-0 Home
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear
Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5
DEN 10 – KC 31
✓ model called it · had KC 54.9%