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🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

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2025 2026
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NFL Week 18

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Week 17 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Minnesota Vikings over Detroit Lions, given only 22% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: New England Patriots at 70% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Kansas City Chiefs cost themselves 1.81 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
SEA SEA 14-3 #2
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SF SF 12-5 #6

Seattle Seahawks (#2) at San Francisco 49ers (#6) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Saturday 2026-01-03 · 20:00 ET 🌧 Rain
SEA 13 – SF 3
✗ model missed it · had SF 61.2%
Saturday 2026-01-03 · 16:30 ET DIV
CAR CAR 8-9 Away
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TB TB 8-9 Home
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain
Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5
CAR 14 – TB 16
✓ model called it · had TB 58.4%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 ET DIV
NO NO 6-11 Away
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ATL ATL 8-9 Home
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome
Spread 4.5 O/U 43.5
NO 17 – ATL 19
✓ model called it · had ATL 55.0%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 ET UPSET DIV
CLE CLE 5-12 Away
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CIN CIN 6-11 Home
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear
Spread 9.5 O/U 47.5
CLE 20 – CIN 18
✗ model missed it · had CIN 82.6%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 ET DIV
IND IND 8-9 Away
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HOU HOU 12-5 Home
NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome
Spread 9.5 O/U 37.5
IND 30 – HOU 38
✓ model called it · had HOU 69.4%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 ET DIV
TEN TEN 3-14 Away
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JAX JAX 13-4 Home
TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain
Spread 12.5 O/U 46.5
TEN 7 – JAX 41
✓ model called it · had JAX 79.0%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 ET DIV
GB GB 9-7-1 Away
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MIN MIN 9-8 Home
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread 12.5 O/U 37.5
GB 3 – MIN 16
✓ model called it · had MIN 64.1%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 ET DIV
DAL DAL 7-9-1 Away
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NYG NYG 4-13 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.0 O/U 50.5
DAL 17 – NYG 34
✗ model missed it · had DAL 50.9%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 ET DIV
NYJ NYJ 3-14 Away
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BUF BUF 12-5 Home
New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow
Spread 12.5 O/U 39.5
NYJ 8 – BUF 35
✓ model called it · had BUF 87.7%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 ET DIV
DET DET 9-8 Away
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CHI CHI 11-6 Home
Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.5 O/U 51.5
DET 19 – CHI 16
✗ model missed it · had CHI 51.7%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 ET DIV
LAC LAC 11-6 Away
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DEN DEN 14-3 Home
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear
Spread 14.5 O/U 37.5
LAC 3 – DEN 19
✓ model called it · had DEN 66.6%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 ET DIV
ARI ARI 3-14 Away
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LA LA 12-5 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread 14.5 O/U 49.5
ARI 20 – LA 37
✓ model called it · had LA 77.2%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 ET DIV
KC KC 6-11 Away
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LV LV 3-14 Home
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome
Spread -3.5 O/U 36.5
KC 12 – LV 14
✗ model missed it · had KC 54.2%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 ET DIV
MIA MIA 7-10 Away
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NE NE 14-3 Home
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌨 Snow
Spread 14.0 O/U 44.5
MIA 10 – NE 38
✓ model called it · had NE 73.7%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 ET UPSET DIV
WAS WAS 5-12 Away
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PHI PHI 11-6 Home
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.0 O/U 38.5
WAS 24 – PHI 17
✗ model missed it · had PHI 63.4%
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 20:20 ET DIV
BAL BAL 8-9 Away
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PIT PIT 10-7 Home
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌨 Snow
Spread -4.5 O/U 41.5
BAL 24 – PIT 26
✓ model called it · had PIT 57.2%