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🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

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2025 2026
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NFL Week 3

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Week 2 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Cleveland Browns over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, given only 28% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: New England Patriots at 81% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Chicago Bears cost themselves 1.91 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
NE NE 1-2 #3
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JAX JAX 2-1 #1

New England Patriots (#3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (#1) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET ☀️ Clear
NE 6 – JAX 35
✓ model called it · had JAX 62.3%
Thursday 2026-09-24 · 20:15 ET UPSET
ATL ATL 1-2 Away
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GB GB 1-2 Home
Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear
Spread 4.5 O/U 43.5
ATL 35 – GB 14
✗ model missed it · had GB 68.2%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET
LAC LAC 0-3 Away
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BUF BUF 3-0 Home
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear
Spread 7.0 O/U 50.5
LAC 16 – BUF 24
✓ model called it · had BUF 82.0%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET
CAR CAR 1-2 Away
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CLE CLE 2-1 Home
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5
CAR 18 – CLE 21
✗ model missed it · had CAR 57.2%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET
NYJ NYJ 1-2 Away
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DET DET 2-1 Home
Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome
Spread 7.0 O/U 49.5
NYJ 24 – DET 31
✓ model called it · had DET 83.6%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET DIV
HOU HOU 0-3 Away
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IND IND 1-2 Home
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear
Spread -1.5 O/U 41.5
HOU 17 – IND 19
✓ model called it · had IND 57.8%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET
KC KC 3-0 Away
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MIA MIA 0-3 Home
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear
Spread -10.0 O/U 45.5
KC 24 – MIA 10
✓ model called it · had KC 51.0%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET
TEN TEN 0-3 Away
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NYG NYG 2-1 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread 2.5 O/U 37.5
TEN 7 – NYG 12
✓ model called it · had NYG 70.8%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET DIV
CIN CIN 2-1 Away
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PIT PIT 2-1 Home
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.5 O/U 42.5
CIN 27 – PIT 30
✗ model missed it · had CIN 51.3%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET
SEA SEA 2-1 Away
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WAS WAS 1-2 Home
Northwest Stadium, Landover US 🌧 Rain
Spread -8.5 O/U 40.5
SEA 31 – WAS 33
✗ model missed it · had SEA 58.2%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 16:05 ET DIV
ARI ARI 1-2 Away
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SF SF 3-0 Home
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear
Spread 7.5 O/U 48.5
ARI 30 – SF 36
✓ model called it · had SF 70.4%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 16:05 ET
MIN MIN 3-0 Away
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TB TB 0-3 Home
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear
Spread -1.5 O/U 42.5
MIN 23 – TB 16
✗ model missed it · had TB 54.7%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 16:25 ET
BAL BAL 2-1 Away
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DAL DAL 1-2 Home
Maracana Stadium, Rio de Janeiro BR ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.0 O/U 53.5
BAL 34 – DAL 31
✓ model called it · had BAL 56.4%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 16:25 ET UPSET
LV LV 3-0 Away
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NO NO 1-2 Home
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.5 O/U 43.5
LV 35 – NO 27
✗ model missed it · had NO 70.9%
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 20:20 ET
LA LA 1-2 Away
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DEN DEN 2-1 Home
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain
Spread 1.5 O/U 43.5
LA 26 – DEN 30
✗ model missed it · had LA 50.5%
Monday 2026-09-28 · 20:15 ET
PHI PHI 2-1 Away
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CHI CHI 2-1 Home
Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.5 O/U 42.5
PHI 7 – CHI 27
✓ model called it · had CHI 52.8%