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🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

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2025 2026
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NFL Week 5

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Week 4 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills, given only 33% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Chicago Bears at 80% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: San Francisco 49ers cost themselves 1.48 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
BUF BUF 4-1 #4
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LA LA 2-3 #6

Buffalo Bills (#4) at Los Angeles Rams (#6) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Monday 2026-10-12 · 20:15 ET 🏟 Dome
BUF 37 – LA 34
✗ model missed it · had LA 55.3%
Thursday 2026-10-08 · 20:15 ET UPSET
TB TB 1-4 Away
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DAL DAL 2-3 Home
AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome
Spread 9.5 O/U 49.5
TB 24 – DAL 16
✗ model missed it · had DAL 62.2%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 09:30 ET
PHI PHI 2-3 Away
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JAX JAX 4-1 Home
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain
Spread 7.5 O/U 41.5
PHI 17 – JAX 19
✓ model called it · had JAX 64.2%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET DIV
CHI CHI 3-2 Away
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GB GB 3-2 Home
Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear
Spread -1.5 O/U 46.5
CHI 7 – GB 31
✓ model called it · had GB 67.2%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET
CIN CIN 3-2 Away
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MIA MIA 0-5 Home
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain
Spread -7.0 O/U 44.5
CIN 31 – MIA 24
✓ model called it · had CIN 59.1%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET
LV LV 3-2 Away
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NE NE 3-2 Home
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5
LV 17 – NE 45
✓ model called it · had NE 83.8%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET
MIN MIN 5-0 Away
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NO NO 1-4 Home
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome
Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5
MIN 23 – NO 13
✗ model missed it · had NO 59.0%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET
CLE CLE 3-2 Away
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NYJ NYJ 2-3 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain
Spread 2.5 O/U 38.5
CLE 12 – NYJ 17
✓ model called it · had NYJ 53.8%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET
IND IND 2-3 Away
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PIT PIT 3-2 Home
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain
Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5
IND 22 – PIT 34
✓ model called it · had PIT 61.0%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET DIV
HOU HOU 1-4 Away
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TEN TEN 0-5 Home
Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear
Spread -6.5 O/U 37.5
HOU 26 – TEN 3
✓ model called it · had HOU 57.6%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET TIE DIV
NYG NYG 3-1-1 Away
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WAS WAS 1-3-1 Home
Northwest Stadium, Landover US 🌧 Rain
Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5
NYG 27 – WAS 27
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 16:05 ET DIV
DEN DEN 3-2 Away
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LAC LAC 0-5 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread -3.5 O/U 42.5
DEN 23 – LAC 17
✓ model called it · had DEN 53.5%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 16:25 ET
DET DET 3-2 Away
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ARI ARI 1-4 Home
State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome
Spread -5.5 O/U 55.5
DET 45 – ARI 21
✓ model called it · had DET 63.4%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 16:25 ET UPSET DIV
SF SF 5-0 Away
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SEA SEA 3-2 Home
Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5
SF 32 – SEA 29
✗ model missed it · had SEA 67.0%
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 20:20 ET UPSET
BAL BAL 4-1 Away
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ATL ATL 2-3 Home
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.5 O/U 44.5
BAL 30 – ATL 23
✗ model missed it · had ATL 60.6%