4TH&DATA
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🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

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2025 2026
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NFL Week 4

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Week 3 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Las Vegas Raiders over New Orleans Saints, given only 29% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Detroit Lions at 84% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Jacksonville Jaguars cost themselves 1.51 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
NE NE 2-2 #3
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BUF BUF 3-1 #4

New England Patriots (#3) at Buffalo Bills (#4) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET ☀️ Clear
NE 29 – BUF 26
✗ model missed it · had BUF 67.0%
Thursday 2026-10-01 · 20:15 ET DIV
PIT PIT 2-2 Away
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CLE CLE 3-1 Home
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 38.5
PIT 24 – CLE 27
✗ model missed it · had PIT 54.4%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 09:30 ET
IND IND 2-2 Away
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WAS WAS 1-3 Home
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear
Spread -4.5 O/U 46.5
IND 30 – WAS 13
✓ model called it · had IND 51.8%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET
TEN TEN 0-4 Away
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BAL BAL 3-1 Home
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear
Spread 11.5 O/U 42.5
TEN 18 – BAL 24
✓ model called it · had BAL 76.1%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET
NYJ NYJ 1-3 Away
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CHI CHI 3-1 Home
Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.5 O/U 43.5
NYJ 12 – CHI 23
✓ model called it · had CHI 79.6%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET
JAX JAX 3-1 Away
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CIN CIN 2-2 Home
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear
Spread 2.5 O/U 51.5
JAX 22 – CIN 17
✗ model missed it · had CIN 51.4%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET UPSET
DAL DAL 2-2 Away
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HOU HOU 0-4 Home
Reliant Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5
DAL 34 – HOU 30
✗ model missed it · had HOU 60.5%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET
ARI ARI 1-3 Away
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NYG NYG 3-1 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 44.5
ARI 24 – NYG 36
✓ model called it · had NYG 62.2%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET
LA LA 2-2 Away
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PHI PHI 2-2 Home
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.5 O/U 42.5
LA 24 – PHI 20
✓ model called it · had LA 59.8%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET
GB GB 2-2 Away
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TB TB 0-4 Home
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain
Spread -3.0 O/U 38.5
GB 17 – TB 14
✓ model called it · had GB 62.7%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 16:05 ET
MIA MIA 0-4 Away
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MIN MIN 4-0 Home
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread 10.0 O/U 38.5
MIA 10 – MIN 15
✓ model called it · had MIN 64.6%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 16:25 ET DIV
KC KC 4-0 Away
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LV LV 3-1 Home
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome
Spread -4.5 O/U 47.5
KC 30 – LV 27
✓ model called it · had KC 56.6%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 16:25 ET
LAC LAC 0-4 Away
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SEA SEA 3-1 Home
Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear
Spread 7.0 O/U 42.5
LAC 23 – SEA 30
✓ model called it · had SEA 77.7%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 16:25 ET
DEN DEN 2-2 Away
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SF SF 4-0 Home
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5
DEN 14 – SF 24
✓ model called it · had SF 62.9%
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 20:20 ET
DET DET 2-2 Away
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CAR CAR 2-2 Home
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear
Spread -4.5 O/U 52.5
DET 26 – CAR 32
✗ model missed it · had DET 50.4%
Monday 2026-10-05 · 20:15 ET DIV
ATL ATL 2-2 Away
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NO NO 1-3 Home
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome
Spread 1.5 O/U 47.5
ATL 45 – NO 24
✗ model missed it · had NO 53.0%