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Best Bets — Week 9

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

MIN @

DET

Model: DET 88.3% · strong edge

QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.268 vs J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.534 EPA/dropback (MIN starting J.J. McCarthy in place of Carson Wentz)

NO @

Model: LA 86.0% · strong edge

QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.145 vs Tyler Shough (NO) -0.471 EPA/dropback (NO starting Tyler Shough in place of Spencer Rattler)

LAC @

TEN

Model: LAC 77.0% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.201 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

CAR @

Model: GB 75.4% · strong edge

QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.221 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.028 EPA/dropback

ATL @

Model: NE 70.6% · strong edge

Drake Maye (NE): +0.209 EPA/dropback in prior starts

IND @

PIT

Model: IND 62.8% · clear edge

IND offense: +0.274 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)