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Best Bets — Week 11

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

NYJ @

Model: NE 72.7% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

CHI @

MIN

Model: CHI 70.5% · strong edge

J.J. McCarthy (MIN): -0.358 EPA/dropback in prior starts

HOU @

TEN

Model: HOU 69.7% · clear edge

TEN offense: -0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

DAL @

Model: DAL 69.6% · clear edge

LV offense: -0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

BAL @

CLE

Model: BAL 66.8% · clear edge

CLE offense: -0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

GB @

NYG

Model: GB 63.1% · clear edge

NYG defense: +0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)