Home

Best Bets — Week 14

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

LA @

ARI

Model: LA 71.9% · strong edge

LA offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

HOU @

Model: KC 71.7% · strong edge

KC offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

WAS @

MIN

Model: WAS 70.9% · strong edge

MIN offense: -0.206 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

NO @

Model: TB 70.3% · strong edge

NO offense: -0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

DEN @

Model: DEN 68.4% · clear edge

LV offense: -0.248 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

SEA @

ATL

Model: SEA 67.0% · clear edge

SEA defense: -0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

CHI @

Model: GB 65.7% · clear edge

Jordan Love (GB): +0.272 EPA/dropback in prior starts

CIN @

BUF

Model: BUF 63.8% · clear edge

BUF offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

TEN @

CLE

Model: CLE 62.1% · clear edge

CLE offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)