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Best Bets — Week 18

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

NYJ @

BUF

Model: BUF 87.7% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.225 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

CLE @

CIN

Model: CIN 82.6% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.235 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

TEN @

JAX

Model: JAX 79.1% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

ARI @

Model: LA 77.2% · strong edge

LA offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

MIA @

Model: NE 73.7% · strong edge

Drake Maye (NE): +0.316 EPA/dropback in prior starts

IND @

HOU

Model: HOU 69.4% · clear edge

QB edge to HOU: C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.121 vs Riley Leonard (IND) -0.136 EPA/dropback (IND starting Riley Leonard in place of Philip Rivers)

LAC @

DEN

Model: DEN 66.6% · clear edge

QB edge to DEN: Bo Nix (DEN) +0.119 vs Trey Lance (LAC) -0.015 EPA/dropback (LAC starting Trey Lance in place of Justin Herbert)

GB @

MIN

Model: MIN 64.1% · clear edge

QB edge to MIN: J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.247 vs Clayton Tune (GB) -1.214 EPA/dropback (MIN starting J.J. McCarthy in place of Max Brosmer; GB starting Clayton Tune in place of Malik Willis)

WAS @

PHI

Model: PHI 63.4% · clear edge

PHI defense: -0.181 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)