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Best Bets — Week 12

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

MIN @

Model: GB 75.9% · strong edge

QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.195 vs J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.368 EPA/dropback

SEA @

TEN

Model: SEA 74.7% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.177 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

NE @

CIN

Model: NE 73.8% · strong edge

CIN defense: +0.247 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

NYJ @

BAL

Model: BAL 73.3% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

TB @

Model: LA 71.2% · strong edge

LA offense: +0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

CAR @

Model: SF 69.2% · clear edge

SF offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

NYG @

DET

Model: DET 68.1% · clear edge

NYG defense: +0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

CLE @

Model: LV 67.4% · clear edge

LV offense: -0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)