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Best Bets — Week 5

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

TEN @

ARI

Model: ARI 80.4% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

DET @

CIN

Model: DET 75.4% · strong edge

DET offense: +0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

NE @

BUF

Model: BUF 74.3% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

MIN @

CLE

Model: MIN 67.2% · clear edge

CLE offense: -0.291 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

LV @

IND

Model: IND 65.9% · clear edge

LV offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

SF @

Model: LA 64.5% · clear edge

LA offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

HOU @

BAL

Model: BAL 62.6% · clear edge

BAL offense: +0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)