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Best Bets — Week 3

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

NYJ @

Model: TB 75.4% · strong edge

TB offense: +0.183 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

MIA @

BUF

Model: BUF 73.9% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

NO @

SEA

Model: SEA 72.1% · strong edge

NO offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

LV @

WAS

Model: WAS 70.5% · strong edge

WAS offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

GB @

CLE

Model: GB 70.4% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.255 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

IND @

TEN

Model: IND 68.9% · clear edge

TEN offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

LA @

PHI

Model: PHI 66.9% · clear edge

PHI defense: -0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)