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Best Bets — Week 4

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

NO @

BUF

Model: BUF 87.1% · strong edge

QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.279 vs Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.216 EPA/dropback

CLE @

DET

Model: DET 87.1% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.272 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

CIN @

DEN

Model: DEN 73.0% · strong edge

CIN defense: -0.012 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

TEN @

HOU

Model: HOU 72.6% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

LAC @

NYG

Model: LAC 65.7% · clear edge

NYG offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

JAX @

Model: SF 62.6% · clear edge

SF offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)