Home

Best Bets — Week 8

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

TEN @

IND

Model: IND 85.7% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.224 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

CLE @

Model: NE 75.6% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

WAS @

Model: KC 74.2% · strong edge

KC defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

NYG @

PHI

Model: PHI 69.0% · clear edge

QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.180 vs Jaxson Dart (NYG) -0.007 EPA/dropback

BUF @

CAR

Model: BUF 68.1% · clear edge

BUF offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

TB @

Model: TB 68.0% · clear edge

QB edge to TB: Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.117 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.212 EPA/dropback

MIN @

LAC

Model: LAC 62.5% · clear edge

MIN offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

MIA @

ATL

Model: ATL 62.0% · clear edge

MIA offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)