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Best Bets — Week 17

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

DET @

MIN

Model: DET 78.5% · strong edge

QB edge to DET: Max Brosmer (MIN) -0.675 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.144 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Max Brosmer in place of J.J. McCarthy)

LA @

ATL

Model: LA 71.2% · strong edge

LA offense: +0.221 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

NE @

NYJ

Model: NE 70.4% · strong edge

NE offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

PIT @

CLE

Model: PIT 68.5% · clear edge

CLE offense: -0.240 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

ARI @

CIN

Model: CIN 67.1% · clear edge

CIN defense: +0.137 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

BAL @

Model: GB 62.6% · clear edge

GB offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

PHI @

BUF

Model: BUF 62.3% · clear edge

BUF offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)