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Best Bets — Week 6

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB
CIN @ GB
Model: GB 80.7% · strong edge

QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.206 vs Joe Flacco (CIN) -0.151 EPA/dropback (CIN starting Joe Flacco in place of Jake Browning)
PHI @ NYG
Model: PHI 74.0% · strong edge

QB edge to PHI: Jaxson Dart (NYG) -0.258 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.116 EPA/dropback
DEN @ NYJ
Model: DEN 72.5% · strong edge

Neutral site — no home-field edge
CLE @ PIT
Model: PIT 72.1% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.238 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
CHI @ WAS
Model: WAS 69.1% · clear edge

WAS offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
BUF @ ATL
Model: BUF 67.2% · clear edge

BUF offense: +0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
TEN @ LV
Model: LV 63.9% · clear edge

TEN offense: -0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
NE @ NO
Model: NE 63.1% · clear edge

NO offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
SF @ TB
Model: TB 62.6% · clear edge

TB offense: +0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
ARI @ IND
Model: IND 62.3% · clear edge

IND offense: +0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)