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Best Bets — Week 1

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

DAL @

PHI

Model: PHI 81.4% · strong edge

PHI defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

TEN @

DEN

Model: DEN 79.8% · strong edge

QB edge to DEN: Bo Nix (DEN) +0.161 vs Cam Ward (TEN) -0.144 EPA/dropback

NYG @

WAS

Model: WAS 72.9% · strong edge

NYG offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

ARI @

Model: ARI 71.1% · strong edge

QB edge to ARI: Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.303 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.134 EPA/dropback

HOU @

Model: LA 69.7% · clear edge

QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.155 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.093 EPA/dropback

CIN @

CLE

Model: CIN 68.4% · clear edge

CLE offense: -0.209 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

TB @

ATL

Model: TB 65.8% · clear edge

TB offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)