Best Bets — Week 13

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

Model: SEA 88.6% · strong edge

QB edge to SEA: Sam Darnold (SEA) +0.124 vs Max Brosmer (MIN) -0.684 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Max Brosmer in place of J.J. McCarthy)

Model: LA 75.5% · strong edge

LA offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Model: SF 72.4% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.204 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Model: LAC 71.2% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.237 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Model: MIA 68.9% · clear edge

NO offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Model: PHI 65.7% · clear edge

PHI defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Model: NE 65.6% · clear edge

NYG offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Model: JAX 64.8% · clear edge

TEN offense: -0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Model: GB 63.2% · clear edge

GB offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Model: TB 62.8% · clear edge

Jacoby Brissett (ARI): -0.069 EPA/dropback in prior starts