4TH&DATA
EN ES
🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games
2025 2026
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NFL Week 19

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Week 18 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Cleveland Browns over Cincinnati Bengals, given only 17% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Buffalo Bills at 88% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: New York Giants cost themselves 1.79 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
BUF BUF 12-5 #4
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JAX JAX 13-4 #1

Buffalo Bills (#4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (#1) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2026-01-11 · 13:00 ET 🌧 Rain
BUF 27 – JAX 24
✗ model missed it · had JAX 56.8%
Saturday 2026-01-10 · 16:30 ET
LA LA 12-5 Away
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CAR CAR 8-9 Home
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain
Spread -10.0 O/U 44.5
LA 34 – CAR 31
✓ model called it · had LA 66.5%
Saturday 2026-01-10 · 20:00 ET DIV
GB GB 9-7-1 Away
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CHI CHI 11-6 Home
Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain
Spread -2.5 O/U 45.5
GB 27 – CHI 31
✗ model missed it · had GB 50.9%
Sunday 2026-01-11 · 16:30 ET
SF SF 12-5 Away
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PHI PHI 11-6 Home
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain
Spread 6.0 O/U 44.5
SF 23 – PHI 19
✓ model called it · had SF 50.4%
Sunday 2026-01-11 · 20:00 ET
LAC LAC 11-6 Away
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NE NE 14-3 Home
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain
Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5
LAC 3 – NE 16
✓ model called it · had NE 79.5%
Monday 2026-01-12 · 20:00 ET
HOU HOU 12-5 Away
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PIT PIT 10-7 Home
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🥶 Cold
Spread -3.0 O/U 38.5
HOU 30 – PIT 6
✗ model missed it · had PIT 58.2%