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Week 4 Storylines
A rare tie: Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys finished level at 40-40. Biggest upset: New York Giants over Los Angeles Chargers, given only 36% to win. The model's boldest correct call: Buffalo Bills at 87% — and they delivered. Worst 4th-down call: Cincinnati Bengals cost themselves 1.62 expected points.🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
DEN
3-2
#8
PHI
4-1
#3
Denver Broncos (#8) at Philadelphia Eagles (#3) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.
DEN 21
–
PHI 17
✗ model missed it
· had PHI 60.8%
Thursday 2025-10-02 · 20:15 ET
SF
4-1
Away
LA
3-2
Home
Spread 8.5
O/U 43.5
SF 26
–
LA 23
✗ model missed it
· had LA 64.5%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 09:30 ET
MIN
3-2
Away
CLE
1-4
Home
Spread -3.5
O/U 35.5
MIN 21
–
CLE 17
✓ model called it
· had MIN 67.2%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 13:00 ET
HOU
2-3
Away
BAL
1-4
Home
Spread -2.5
O/U 41.5
HOU 44
–
BAL 10
✗ model missed it
· had BAL 62.6%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 13:00 ET
MIA
1-4
Away
CAR
2-3
Home
Spread -1.5
O/U 44.5
MIA 24
–
CAR 27
✓ model called it
· had CAR 53.8%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 13:00 ET
LV
1-4
Away
IND
4-1
Home
Spread 7.0
O/U 46.5
LV 6
–
IND 40
✓ model called it
· had IND 65.9%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 13:00 ET
NYG
1-4
Away
NO
1-4
Home
Spread 1.5
O/U 41.5
NYG 14
–
NO 26
✗ model missed it
· had NYG 55.3%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 13:00 ET
DAL
2-2-1
Away
NYJ
0-5
Home
Spread 1.5
O/U 48.5
DAL 37
–
NYJ 22
✗ model missed it
· had NYJ 54.0%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 16:05 ET
TEN
1-4
Away
ARI
2-3
Home
Spread 7.5
O/U 41.5
TEN 22
–
ARI 21
✗ model missed it
· had ARI 80.4%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 16:05 ET
TB
4-1
Away
SEA
3-2
Home
Spread 3.5
O/U 44.5
TB 38
–
SEA 35
✓ model called it
· had TB 58.1%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 16:25 ET
DET
4-1
Away
CIN
2-3
Home
Spread -10.5
O/U 49.5
DET 37
–
CIN 24
✓ model called it
· had DET 75.4%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 16:25 ET
WAS
3-2
Away
LAC
3-2
Home
Spread 2.5
O/U 47.5
WAS 27
–
LAC 10
✗ model missed it
· had LAC 58.9%
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 20:20 ET
NE
3-2
Away
BUF
4-1
Home
Spread 7.5
O/U 49.5
NE 23
–
BUF 20
✗ model missed it
· had BUF 74.3%
Monday 2025-10-06 · 20:15 ET
KC
2-3
Away
JAX
4-1
Home
Spread -3.5
O/U 45.5
KC 28
–
JAX 31
✗ model missed it
· had KC 50.7%
