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🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

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2025 2026
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NFL Week 6

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Week 5 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Tennessee Titans over Arizona Cardinals, given only 20% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Detroit Lions at 75% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: New York Giants cost themselves 1.57 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
BUF BUF 4-2 #2
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ATL ATL 3-2 #10

Buffalo Bills (#2) at Atlanta Falcons (#10) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Monday 2025-10-13 · 19:15 ET 🏟 Dome
BUF 14 – ATL 24
✗ model missed it · had BUF 67.2%
Thursday 2025-10-09 · 20:15 ET UPSET DIV
PHI PHI 4-2 Away
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NYG NYG 2-4 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread -7.0 O/U 40.5
PHI 17 – NYG 34
✗ model missed it · had PHI 74.0%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 09:30 ET
DEN DEN 4-2 Away
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NYJ NYJ 0-6 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain
Spread -7.5 O/U 43.5
DEN 13 – NYJ 11
✓ model called it · had DEN 72.5%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 ET
LA LA 4-2 Away
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BAL BAL 1-5 Home
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain
Spread -7.0 O/U 43.5
LA 17 – BAL 3
✓ model called it · had LA 61.9%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 ET
DAL DAL 2-3-1 Away
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CAR CAR 3-3 Home
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 💨 Windy
Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5
DAL 27 – CAR 30
✗ model missed it · had DAL 54.5%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 ET
ARI ARI 2-4 Away
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IND IND 5-1 Home
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread 8.5 O/U 46.5
ARI 27 – IND 31
✓ model called it · had IND 62.3%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 ET
SEA SEA 4-2 Away
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JAX JAX 4-2 Home
TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear
Spread -1.5 O/U 47.5
SEA 20 – JAX 12
✗ model missed it · had JAX 52.8%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 ET
LAC LAC 4-2 Away
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MIA MIA 1-5 Home
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain
Spread -3.5 O/U 45.5
LAC 29 – MIA 27
✗ model missed it · had MIA 50.3%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 ET
NE NE 4-2 Away
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NO NO 1-5 Home
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome
Spread -3.5 O/U 46.5
NE 25 – NO 19
✓ model called it · had NE 63.1%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 ET DIV
CLE CLE 1-5 Away
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PIT PIT 4-1 Home
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear
Spread 5.5 O/U 37.5
CLE 9 – PIT 23
✓ model called it · had PIT 72.1%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 16:05 ET
TEN TEN 1-5 Away
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LV LV 2-4 Home
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5
TEN 10 – LV 20
✓ model called it · had LV 63.9%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 16:25 ET
CIN CIN 2-4 Away
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GB GB 3-1-1 Home
Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear
Spread 14.0 O/U 44.5
CIN 18 – GB 27
✓ model called it · had GB 80.7%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 16:25 ET
SF SF 4-2 Away
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TB TB 5-1 Home
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5
SF 19 – TB 30
✓ model called it · had TB 62.6%
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 20:20 ET
DET DET 4-2 Away
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KC KC 3-3 Home
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear
Spread 2.5 O/U 51.5
DET 17 – KC 30
✗ model missed it · had DET 54.5%
Monday 2025-10-13 · 20:15 ET UPSET
CHI CHI 3-2 Away
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WAS WAS 3-3 Home
FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain
Spread 5.5 O/U 49.5
CHI 25 – WAS 24
✗ model missed it · had WAS 69.1%