4TH&DATA
EN ES
🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games
2025 2026
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NFL Week 1

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Week 1 Storylines

🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Philadelphia Eagles at 81% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: New Orleans Saints cost themselves 2.13 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
BAL BAL 0-1 #2
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BUF BUF 1-0 #6

Baltimore Ravens (#2) at Buffalo Bills (#6) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2025-09-07 · 20:20 ET ☀️ Clear
BAL 40 – BUF 41
✓ model called it · had BUF 51.9%
Thursday 2025-09-04 · 20:20 ET DIV
DAL DAL 0-1 Away
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PHI PHI 1-0 Home
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain
Spread 8.5 O/U 47.5
DAL 20 – PHI 24
✓ model called it · had PHI 81.4%
Friday 2025-09-05 · 20:00 ET DIV
KC KC 0-1 Away
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LAC LAC 1-0 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5
KC 21 – LAC 27
✗ model missed it · had KC 53.2%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 ET DIV
TB TB 1-0 Away
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ATL ATL 0-1 Home
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome
Spread -1.5 O/U 47.5
TB 23 – ATL 20
✓ model called it · had TB 65.8%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 ET DIV
CIN CIN 1-0 Away
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CLE CLE 0-1 Home
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain
Spread -5.5 O/U 47.5
CIN 17 – CLE 16
✓ model called it · had CIN 68.4%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 ET
MIA MIA 0-1 Away
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IND IND 1-0 Home
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread 1.5 O/U 47.5
MIA 8 – IND 33
✗ model missed it · had MIA 59.1%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 ET
CAR CAR 0-1 Away
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JAX JAX 1-0 Home
TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain
Spread 4.5 O/U 45.5
CAR 10 – JAX 26
✓ model called it · had JAX 52.6%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 ET
LV LV 1-0 Away
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NE NE 0-1 Home
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain
Spread 2.5 O/U 44.5
LV 20 – NE 13
✗ model missed it · had NE 51.8%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 ET
ARI ARI 1-0 Away
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NO NO 0-1 Home
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome
Spread -6.0 O/U 44.5
ARI 20 – NO 13
✓ model called it · had ARI 71.1%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 ET
PIT PIT 1-0 Away
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NYJ NYJ 0-1 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain
Spread -3.0 O/U 37.5
PIT 34 – NYJ 32
✗ model missed it · had NYJ 57.2%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 ET DIV
NYG NYG 0-1 Away
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WAS WAS 1-0 Home
FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain
Spread 6.0 O/U 45.5
NYG 6 – WAS 21
✓ model called it · had WAS 72.9%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 16:05 ET
TEN TEN 0-1 Away
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DEN DEN 1-0 Home
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear
Spread 8.5 O/U 42.5
TEN 12 – DEN 20
✓ model called it · had DEN 79.8%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 16:05 ET DIV
SF SF 1-0 Away
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SEA SEA 0-1 Home
Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5
SF 17 – SEA 13
✗ model missed it · had SEA 59.7%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 16:25 ET DIV
DET DET 0-1 Away
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GB GB 1-0 Home
Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear
Spread 1.5 O/U 48.5
DET 13 – GB 27
✓ model called it · had GB 54.3%
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 16:25 ET
HOU HOU 0-1 Away
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LA LA 1-0 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.5 O/U 43.5
HOU 9 – LA 14
✓ model called it · had LA 69.7%
Monday 2025-09-08 · 20:15 ET DIV
MIN MIN 1-0 Away
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CHI CHI 0-1 Home
Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear
Spread -1.5 O/U 43.5
MIN 27 – CHI 24
✗ model missed it · had CHI 52.1%