4TH&DATA
EN ES
🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

What's New · Best Bets · Value Picks

2025 2026
←

NFL Week 9

→
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

Week 8 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Miami Dolphins over Atlanta Falcons, given only 38% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Indianapolis Colts at 86% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Green Bay Packers cost themselves 1.65 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
KC KC 5-4 #2
@
BUF BUF 6-2 #4

Kansas City Chiefs (#2) at Buffalo Bills (#4) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2025-11-02 · 16:25 ET ☀️ Clear
KC 21 – BUF 28
✓ model called it · had BUF 51.4%
Thursday 2025-10-30 · 20:15 ET
BAL BAL 3-5 Away
@
MIA MIA 2-7 Home
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear
Spread -7.5 O/U 51.5
BAL 28 – MIA 6
✓ model called it · had BAL 54.5%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 ET
CHI CHI 5-3 Away
@
CIN CIN 3-6 Home
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain
Spread -3.0 O/U 51.5
CHI 47 – CIN 42
✓ model called it · had CHI 57.5%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 ET UPSET DIV
MIN MIN 4-4 Away
@
DET DET 5-3 Home
Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome
Spread 9.5 O/U 47.5
MIN 27 – DET 24
✗ model missed it · had DET 88.3%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 ET UPSET
CAR CAR 5-4 Away
@
GB GB 5-2-1 Home
Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain
Spread 12.5 O/U 43.5
CAR 16 – GB 13
✗ model missed it · had GB 75.4%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 ET
DEN DEN 7-2 Away
@
HOU HOU 3-5 Home
NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome
Spread 1.5 O/U 40.5
DEN 18 – HOU 15
✗ model missed it · had HOU 54.5%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 ET
ATL ATL 3-5 Away
@
NE NE 7-2 Home
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear
Spread 5.5 O/U 45.5
ATL 23 – NE 24
✓ model called it · had NE 70.6%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 ET
SF SF 6-3 Away
@
NYG NYG 2-7 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5
SF 34 – NYG 24
✗ model missed it · had NYG 50.8%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 ET UPSET
IND IND 7-2 Away
@
PIT PIT 5-3 Home
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.5 O/U 51.5
IND 20 – PIT 27
✗ model missed it · had IND 62.8%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 ET
LAC LAC 6-3 Away
@
TEN TEN 1-8 Home
Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain
Spread -10.0 O/U 44.5
LAC 27 – TEN 20
✓ model called it · had LAC 77.0%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 16:05 ET
NO NO 1-8 Away
@
LA LA 6-2 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread 14.0 O/U 44.5
NO 10 – LA 34
✓ model called it · had LA 86.0%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 16:05 ET
JAX JAX 5-3 Away
@
LV LV 2-6 Home
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome
Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5
JAX 30 – LV 29
✓ model called it · had JAX 61.3%
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 20:20 ET
SEA SEA 6-2 Away
@
WAS WAS 3-6 Home
FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5
SEA 38 – WAS 14
✓ model called it · had SEA 55.2%
Monday 2025-11-03 · 20:15 ET
ARI ARI 3-5 Away
@
DAL DAL 3-5-1 Home
AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.5 O/U 53.5
ARI 27 – DAL 17
✗ model missed it · had DAL 55.0%