4TH&DATA
EN ES
🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games
2025 2026
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NFL Week 17

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Week 16 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Minnesota Vikings over New York Giants, given only 32% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Houston Texans at 84% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Seattle Seahawks cost themselves 1.47 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
PHI PHI 11-5 #3
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BUF BUF 11-5 #9

Philadelphia Eagles (#3) at Buffalo Bills (#9) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2025-12-28 · 16:25 ET 🌧 Rain
PHI 13 – BUF 12
✗ model missed it · had BUF 62.3%
Thursday 2025-12-25 · 13:00 ET DIV
DAL DAL 7-8-1 Away
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WAS WAS 4-12 Home
FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear
Spread -8.5 O/U 50.5
DAL 30 – WAS 23
✓ model called it · had DAL 54.6%
Thursday 2025-12-25 · 16:30 ET UPSET DIV
DET DET 8-8 Away
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MIN MIN 8-8 Home
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread -7.0 O/U 45.5
DET 10 – MIN 23
✗ model missed it · had DET 78.5%
Thursday 2025-12-25 · 20:15 ET DIV
DEN DEN 13-3 Away
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KC KC 6-10 Home
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear
Spread -13.5 O/U 37.5
DEN 20 – KC 13
✓ model called it · had DEN 56.4%
Saturday 2025-12-27 · 16:30 ET
HOU HOU 11-5 Away
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LAC LAC 11-5 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread 1.5 O/U 40.5
HOU 20 – LAC 16
✗ model missed it · had LAC 54.7%
Saturday 2025-12-27 · 20:00 ET UPSET
BAL BAL 8-8 Away
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GB GB 9-6-1 Home
Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear
Spread 2.5 O/U 38.5
BAL 41 – GB 24
✗ model missed it · had GB 62.6%
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 ET
SEA SEA 13-3 Away
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CAR CAR 8-8 Home
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain
Spread -6.5 O/U 42.5
SEA 27 – CAR 10
✓ model called it · had SEA 61.7%
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 ET
ARI ARI 3-13 Away
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CIN CIN 6-10 Home
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain
Spread 7.0 O/U 52.5
ARI 14 – CIN 37
✓ model called it · had CIN 67.1%
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 ET UPSET DIV
PIT PIT 9-7 Away
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CLE CLE 4-12 Home
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain
Spread -4.5 O/U 35.5
PIT 6 – CLE 13
✗ model missed it · had PIT 68.5%
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 ET DIV
JAX JAX 12-4 Away
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IND IND 8-8 Home
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread -3.5 O/U 48.5
JAX 23 – IND 17
✓ model called it · had JAX 58.5%
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 ET
TB TB 7-9 Away
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MIA MIA 7-9 Home
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear
Spread -5.5 O/U 44.5
TB 17 – MIA 20
✓ model called it · had MIA 55.5%
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 ET DIV
NE NE 13-3 Away
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NYJ NYJ 3-13 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌨 Snow
Spread -12.5 O/U 42.5
NE 42 – NYJ 10
✓ model called it · had NE 70.4%
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 ET
NO NO 6-10 Away
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TEN TEN 3-13 Home
Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain
Spread -1.5 O/U 39.5
NO 34 – TEN 26
✗ model missed it · had TEN 54.4%
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 16:05 ET
NYG NYG 3-13 Away
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LV LV 2-14 Home
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome
Spread -3.0 O/U 40.5
NYG 34 – LV 10
✓ model called it · had NYG 58.5%
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 20:20 ET
CHI CHI 11-5 Away
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SF SF 12-4 Home
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.5 O/U 51.5
CHI 38 – SF 42
✓ model called it · had SF 61.9%
Monday 2025-12-29 · 20:15 ET UPSET
LA LA 11-5 Away
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ATL ATL 7-9 Home
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome
Spread -7.5 O/U 48.5
LA 24 – ATL 27
✗ model missed it · had LA 71.2%