4TH&DATA
EN ES
🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games
2025 2026
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NFL Week 11

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Week 10 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Miami Dolphins over Buffalo Bills, given only 30% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Denver Broncos at 79% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: New York Giants cost themselves 2.36 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
SEA SEA 7-3 #3
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LA LA 8-2 #1

Seattle Seahawks (#3) at Los Angeles Rams (#1) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2025-11-16 · 16:05 ET 🏟 Dome
SEA 19 – LA 21
✓ model called it · had LA 60.4%
Thursday 2025-11-13 · 20:15 ET DIV
NYJ NYJ 2-8 Away
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NE NE 9-2 Home
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain
Spread 12.5 O/U 43.5
NYJ 14 – NE 27
✓ model called it · had NE 72.7%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 09:30 ET
WAS WAS 3-8 Away
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MIA MIA 4-7 Home
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear
Spread 2.5 O/U 47.5
WAS 13 – MIA 16
✗ model missed it · had WAS 50.6%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 ET DIV
CAR CAR 6-5 Away
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ATL ATL 3-7 Home
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome
Spread 4.5 O/U 42.5
CAR 30 – ATL 27
✗ model missed it · had ATL 56.8%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 ET
TB TB 6-4 Away
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BUF BUF 7-3 Home
New Era Field, Orchard Park US 💨 Windy
Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5
TB 32 – BUF 44
✓ model called it · had BUF 59.9%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 ET
LAC LAC 7-4 Away
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JAX JAX 6-4 Home
TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5
LAC 6 – JAX 35
✗ model missed it · had LAC 56.5%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 ET DIV
CHI CHI 7-3 Away
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MIN MIN 4-6 Home
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.0 O/U 47.5
CHI 19 – MIN 17
✓ model called it · had CHI 70.5%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 ET
GB GB 6-3-1 Away
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NYG NYG 2-9 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy
Spread -7.5 O/U 41.5
GB 27 – NYG 20
✓ model called it · had GB 63.1%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 ET DIV
CIN CIN 3-7 Away
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PIT PIT 6-4 Home
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 💨 Windy
Spread 5.5 O/U 48.5
CIN 12 – PIT 34
✓ model called it · had PIT 59.9%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 13:00 ET DIV
HOU HOU 5-5 Away
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TEN TEN 1-9 Home
Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear
Spread -5.5 O/U 37.5
HOU 16 – TEN 13
✓ model called it · had HOU 69.7%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 16:05 ET DIV
SF SF 7-4 Away
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ARI ARI 3-7 Home
State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome
Spread -3.5 O/U 48.5
SF 41 – ARI 22
✓ model called it · had SF 56.6%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 16:25 ET DIV
BAL BAL 5-5 Away
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CLE CLE 2-8 Home
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain
Spread -7.5 O/U 37.5
BAL 23 – CLE 16
✓ model called it · had BAL 66.8%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 16:25 ET DIV
KC KC 5-5 Away
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DEN DEN 9-2 Home
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.5 O/U 44.5
KC 19 – DEN 22
✗ model missed it · had KC 54.3%
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 20:20 ET
DET DET 6-4 Away
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PHI PHI 8-2 Home
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy
Spread 2.5 O/U 46.5
DET 9 – PHI 16
✓ model called it · had PHI 52.5%
Monday 2025-11-17 · 20:15 ET
DAL DAL 4-5-1 Away
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LV LV 2-8 Home
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome
Spread -3.5 O/U 48.5
DAL 33 – LV 16
✓ model called it · had DAL 69.6%