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🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

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2025 2026
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NFL Week 7

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Week 6 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: New York Giants over Philadelphia Eagles, given only 26% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Green Bay Packers at 81% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Tennessee Titans cost themselves 1.57 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
HOU HOU 2-4 #1
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SEA SEA 5-2 #10

Houston Texans (#1) at Seattle Seahawks (#10) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Monday 2025-10-20 · 22:00 ET 🌧 Rain
HOU 19 – SEA 27
✓ model called it · had SEA 50.6%
Thursday 2025-10-16 · 20:15 ET UPSET DIV
PIT PIT 4-2 Away
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CIN CIN 3-4 Home
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear
Spread -5.5 O/U 45.5
PIT 31 – CIN 33
✗ model missed it · had PIT 63.8%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 09:30 ET
LA LA 5-2 Away
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JAX JAX 4-3 Home
TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain
Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5
LA 35 – JAX 7
✓ model called it · had LA 62.7%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 ET
NO NO 1-6 Away
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CHI CHI 4-2 Home
Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain
Spread 4.5 O/U 43.5
NO 14 – CHI 26
✓ model called it · had CHI 61.9%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 ET
MIA MIA 1-6 Away
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CLE CLE 2-5 Home
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain
Spread 2.5 O/U 34.5
MIA 6 – CLE 31
✗ model missed it · had MIA 58.7%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 ET DIV
LV LV 2-5 Away
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KC KC 4-3 Home
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear
Spread 13.5 O/U 44.5
LV 0 – KC 31
✓ model called it · had KC 75.0%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 ET
PHI PHI 5-2 Away
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MIN MIN 3-3 Home
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5
PHI 28 – MIN 22
✓ model called it · had PHI 58.1%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 ET
CAR CAR 4-3 Away
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NYJ NYJ 0-7 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread 1.5 O/U 39.5
CAR 13 – NYJ 6
✓ model called it · had CAR 52.8%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 ET
NE NE 5-2 Away
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TEN TEN 1-6 Home
Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain
Spread -6.5 O/U 40.5
NE 31 – TEN 13
✓ model called it · had NE 72.2%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 16:05 ET
NYG NYG 2-5 Away
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DEN DEN 5-2 Home
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear
Spread 7.5 O/U 39.5
NYG 32 – DEN 33
✓ model called it · had DEN 72.9%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 16:05 ET
IND IND 6-1 Away
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LAC LAC 4-3 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread 2.5 O/U 48.5
IND 38 – LAC 24
✓ model called it · had IND 58.5%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 16:25 ET
GB GB 4-1-1 Away
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ARI ARI 2-5 Home
State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome
Spread -7.0 O/U 44.5
GB 27 – ARI 23
✓ model called it · had GB 59.0%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 16:25 ET DIV
WAS WAS 3-4 Away
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DAL DAL 3-3-1 Home
AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome
Spread 1.5 O/U 54.5
WAS 22 – DAL 44
✗ model missed it · had WAS 55.3%
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 20:20 ET
ATL ATL 3-3 Away
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SF SF 5-2 Home
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear
Spread 1.5 O/U 46.5
ATL 10 – SF 20
✓ model called it · had SF 54.7%
Monday 2025-10-20 · 19:00 ET
TB TB 5-2 Away
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DET DET 5-2 Home
Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome
Spread 6.0 O/U 54.5
TB 9 – DET 24
✓ model called it · had DET 54.6%