4TH&DATA
EN ES
🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

What's New · Best Bets · Value Picks

2025 2026
←

NFL Week 14

→
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

Week 13 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Carolina Panthers over Los Angeles Rams, given only 24% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Seattle Seahawks at 89% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Seattle Seahawks cost themselves 1.75 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
HOU HOU 8-5 #6
@
KC KC 6-7 #4

Houston Texans (#6) at Kansas City Chiefs (#4) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2025-12-07 · 20:20 ET 🥶 Cold
HOU 20 – KC 10
✗ model missed it · had KC 71.7%
Thursday 2025-12-04 · 20:15 ET
DAL DAL 6-6-1 Away
@
DET DET 8-5 Home
Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.5 O/U 55.5
DAL 30 – DET 44
✗ model missed it · had DAL 52.9%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 ET
SEA SEA 10-3 Away
@
ATL ATL 4-9 Home
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome
Spread -7.0 O/U 44.5
SEA 37 – ATL 9
✓ model called it · had SEA 67.0%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 ET UPSET DIV
PIT PIT 7-6 Away
@
BAL BAL 6-7 Home
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear
Spread 5.5 O/U 43.5
PIT 27 – BAL 22
✗ model missed it · had BAL 60.5%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 ET
CIN CIN 4-9 Away
@
BUF BUF 9-4 Home
New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow
Spread 6.0 O/U 54.5
CIN 34 – BUF 39
✓ model called it · had BUF 63.8%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 ET UPSET
TEN TEN 2-11 Away
@
CLE CLE 3-10 Home
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌨 Snow
Spread 4.5 O/U 33.5
TEN 31 – CLE 29
✗ model missed it · had CLE 62.1%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 ET DIV
IND IND 8-5 Away
@
JAX JAX 9-4 Home
TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain
Spread -2.5 O/U 44.5
IND 19 – JAX 36
✗ model missed it · had IND 52.5%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 ET UPSET
WAS WAS 3-10 Away
@
MIN MIN 5-8 Home
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread -1.5 O/U 43.5
WAS 0 – MIN 31
✗ model missed it · had WAS 71.2%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 ET DIV
MIA MIA 6-7 Away
@
NYJ NYJ 3-10 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5
MIA 34 – NYJ 10
✓ model called it · had MIA 54.6%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 ET UPSET DIV
NO NO 3-10 Away
@
TB TB 7-6 Home
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain
Spread 7.5 O/U 41.5
NO 24 – TB 20
✗ model missed it · had TB 70.3%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 16:05 ET DIV
DEN DEN 11-2 Away
@
LV LV 2-11 Home
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome
Spread -8.5 O/U 40.5
DEN 24 – LV 17
✓ model called it · had DEN 68.4%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 16:25 ET DIV
LA LA 10-3 Away
@
ARI ARI 3-10 Home
State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome
Spread -9.5 O/U 49.5
LA 45 – ARI 17
✓ model called it · had LA 71.9%
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 16:25 ET DIV
CHI CHI 9-4 Away
@
GB GB 9-3-1 Home
Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow
Spread 6.5 O/U 44.5
CHI 21 – GB 28
✓ model called it · had GB 65.7%
Monday 2025-12-08 · 20:15 ET
PHI PHI 8-5 Away
@
LAC LAC 9-4 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread -1.5 O/U 41.5
PHI 19 – LAC 22
✗ model missed it · had PHI 53.8%