4TH&DATA
EN ES
🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games
2025 2026
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NFL Week 16

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Week 15 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Minnesota Vikings over Dallas Cowboys, given only 26% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Jacksonville Jaguars at 85% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Pittsburgh Steelers cost themselves 1.88 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
LA LA 11-4 #1
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SEA SEA 12-3 #2

Los Angeles Rams (#1) at Seattle Seahawks (#2) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Thursday 2025-12-18 · 20:15 ET 🌧 Rain
LA 37 – SEA 38
✓ model called it · had SEA 52.7%
Saturday 2025-12-20 · 17:00 ET DIV
PHI PHI 10-5 Away
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WAS WAS 4-11 Home
FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear
Spread -7.0 O/U 43.5
PHI 29 – WAS 18
✓ model called it · had PHI 67.9%
Saturday 2025-12-20 · 20:20 ET DIV
GB GB 9-5-1 Away
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CHI CHI 11-4 Home
Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear
Spread 1.5 O/U 45.5
GB 16 – CHI 22
✗ model missed it · had GB 50.8%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 ET DIV
TB TB 7-8 Away
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CAR CAR 8-7 Home
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5
TB 20 – CAR 23
✓ model called it · had CAR 53.0%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 ET
BUF BUF 11-4 Away
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CLE CLE 3-12 Home
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 💨 Windy
Spread -10.5 O/U 41.5
BUF 23 – CLE 20
✓ model called it · had BUF 78.5%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 ET
LAC LAC 11-4 Away
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DAL DAL 6-8-1 Home
AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome
Spread 1.5 O/U 50.5
LAC 34 – DAL 17
✗ model missed it · had DAL 56.8%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 ET
CIN CIN 5-10 Away
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MIA MIA 6-9 Home
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain
Spread -3.5 O/U 48.5
CIN 45 – MIA 21
✓ model called it · had CIN 60.7%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 ET
NYJ NYJ 3-12 Away
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NO NO 5-10 Home
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome
Spread 6.5 O/U 39.5
NYJ 6 – NO 29
✓ model called it · had NO 58.2%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 ET UPSET
MIN MIN 7-8 Away
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NYG NYG 2-13 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy
Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5
MIN 16 – NYG 13
✗ model missed it · had NYG 68.0%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 ET UPSET
KC KC 6-9 Away
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TEN TEN 3-12 Home
Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear
Spread -3.5 O/U 37.5
KC 9 – TEN 26
✗ model missed it · had KC 62.7%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 16:05 ET
ATL ATL 6-9 Away
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ARI ARI 3-12 Home
State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome
Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5
ATL 26 – ARI 19
✓ model called it · had ATL 52.3%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 16:05 ET
JAX JAX 11-4 Away
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DEN DEN 12-3 Home
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5
JAX 34 – DEN 20
✗ model missed it · had DEN 56.7%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 16:25 ET UPSET
PIT PIT 9-6 Away
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DET DET 8-7 Home
Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome
Spread 7.5 O/U 52.5
PIT 29 – DET 24
✗ model missed it · had DET 62.9%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 16:25 ET
LV LV 2-13 Away
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HOU HOU 10-5 Home
NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome
Spread 14.5 O/U 39.5
LV 21 – HOU 23
✓ model called it · had HOU 84.2%
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 20:20 ET
NE NE 12-3 Away
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BAL BAL 7-8 Home
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.5 O/U 48.5
NE 28 – BAL 24
✓ model called it · had NE 50.4%
Monday 2025-12-22 · 20:15 ET
SF SF 11-4 Away
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IND IND 8-7 Home
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread -4.5 O/U 46.5
SF 48 – IND 27
✓ model called it · had SF 53.4%