4TH&DATA
EN ES
🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

What's New · Best Bets · Value Picks

2025 2026
←

NFL Week 3

→
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

Week 2 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins, given only 39% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Baltimore Ravens at 87% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Seattle Seahawks cost themselves 1.80 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
LA LA 2-1 #7
@
PHI PHI 3-0 #2

Los Angeles Rams (#7) at Philadelphia Eagles (#2) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET ☀️ Clear
LA 26 – PHI 33
✓ model called it · had PHI 66.9%
Thursday 2025-09-18 · 20:15 ET DIV
MIA MIA 0-3 Away
@
BUF BUF 3-0 Home
New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear
Spread 12.5 O/U 50.5
MIA 21 – BUF 31
✓ model called it · had BUF 73.9%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET DIV
ATL ATL 1-2 Away
@
CAR CAR 1-2 Home
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear
Spread -5.5 O/U 44.5
ATL 0 – CAR 30
✗ model missed it · had ATL 54.8%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET UPSET
GB GB 2-1 Away
@
CLE CLE 1-2 Home
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear
Spread -8.5 O/U 41.5
GB 10 – CLE 13
✗ model missed it · had GB 70.4%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET DIV
HOU HOU 0-3 Away
@
JAX JAX 2-1 Home
TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain
Spread 1.5 O/U 43.5
HOU 10 – JAX 17
✓ model called it · had JAX 61.8%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET
CIN CIN 2-1 Away
@
MIN MIN 2-1 Home
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5
CIN 10 – MIN 48
✗ model missed it · had CIN 52.3%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET
PIT PIT 2-1 Away
@
NE NE 1-2 Home
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear
Spread -1.5 O/U 44.5
PIT 21 – NE 14
✗ model missed it · had NE 57.8%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET
NYJ NYJ 0-3 Away
@
TB TB 3-0 Home
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear
Spread 6.5 O/U 43.5
NYJ 27 – TB 29
✓ model called it · had TB 75.4%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET DIV
IND IND 3-0 Away
@
TEN TEN 0-3 Home
Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain
Spread -6.0 O/U 43.5
IND 41 – TEN 20
✓ model called it · had IND 68.9%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET
LV LV 1-2 Away
@
WAS WAS 2-1 Home
FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain
Spread 2.5 O/U 43.5
LV 24 – WAS 41
✓ model called it · had WAS 70.5%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 16:05 ET DIV
DEN DEN 1-2 Away
@
LAC LAC 3-0 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5
DEN 20 – LAC 23
✓ model called it · had LAC 57.3%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 16:05 ET
NO NO 0-3 Away
@
SEA SEA 2-1 Home
Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain
Spread 7.5 O/U 41.5
NO 13 – SEA 44
✓ model called it · had SEA 72.1%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 16:25 ET
DAL DAL 1-2 Away
@
CHI CHI 1-2 Home
Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain
Spread -1.5 O/U 49.5
DAL 14 – CHI 31
✗ model missed it · had DAL 51.7%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 16:25 ET DIV
ARI ARI 2-1 Away
@
SF SF 3-0 Home
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear
Spread 1.5 O/U 44.5
ARI 15 – SF 16
✗ model missed it · had ARI 53.9%
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 20:20 ET
KC KC 1-2 Away
@
NYG NYG 0-3 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread -6.0 O/U 44.5
KC 22 – NYG 9
✓ model called it · had KC 57.9%
Monday 2025-09-22 · 20:15 ET
DET DET 2-1 Away
@
BAL BAL 1-2 Home
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear
Spread 4.5 O/U 53.5
DET 38 – BAL 30
✗ model missed it · had BAL 57.0%