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🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

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2025 2026
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NFL Week 4

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Week 3 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Cleveland Browns over Green Bay Packers, given only 30% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 75% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Indianapolis Colts cost themselves 1.73 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
PHI PHI 4-0 #4
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TB TB 3-1 #2

Philadelphia Eagles (#4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#2) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 ET ☀️ Clear
PHI 31 – TB 25
✗ model missed it · had TB 60.4%
Thursday 2025-09-25 · 20:15 ET DIV
SEA SEA 3-1 Away
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ARI ARI 2-2 Home
State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome
Spread -1.5 O/U 43.5
SEA 23 – ARI 20
✗ model missed it · had ARI 53.7%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 09:30 ET
MIN MIN 2-2 Away
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PIT PIT 3-1 Home
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5
MIN 21 – PIT 24
✗ model missed it · had MIN 56.0%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 ET
WAS WAS 2-2 Away
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ATL ATL 2-2 Home
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome
Spread 2.5 O/U 43.5
WAS 27 – ATL 34
✗ model missed it · had WAS 56.6%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 ET
NO NO 0-4 Away
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BUF BUF 4-0 Home
New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear
Spread 15.5 O/U 48.5
NO 19 – BUF 31
✓ model called it · had BUF 87.1%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 ET
CLE CLE 1-3 Away
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DET DET 3-1 Home
Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome
Spread 10.0 O/U 44.5
CLE 10 – DET 34
✓ model called it · had DET 87.1%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 ET DIV
TEN TEN 0-4 Away
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HOU HOU 1-3 Home
NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome
Spread 7.5 O/U 39.5
TEN 0 – HOU 26
✓ model called it · had HOU 72.6%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 ET
CAR CAR 1-3 Away
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NE NE 2-2 Home
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain
Spread 5.5 O/U 42.5
CAR 13 – NE 42
✗ model missed it · had CAR 51.8%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 ET UPSET
LAC LAC 3-1 Away
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NYG NYG 1-3 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread -6.0 O/U 43.5
LAC 18 – NYG 21
✗ model missed it · had LAC 63.9%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 16:05 ET
IND IND 3-1 Away
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LA LA 3-1 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.5 O/U 49.5
IND 20 – LA 27
✓ model called it · had LA 58.6%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 16:05 ET UPSET
JAX JAX 3-1 Away
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SF SF 3-1 Home
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear
Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5
JAX 26 – SF 21
✗ model missed it · had SF 62.6%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 16:25 ET
BAL BAL 1-3 Away
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KC KC 2-2 Home
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear
Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5
BAL 20 – KC 37
✗ model missed it · had BAL 56.4%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 16:25 ET
CHI CHI 2-2 Away
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LV LV 1-3 Home
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome
Spread 1.5 O/U 47.5
CHI 25 – LV 24
✗ model missed it · had LV 52.9%
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 20:20 ET TIE
GB GB 2-1-1 Away
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DAL DAL 1-2-1 Home
AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome
Spread -7.0 O/U 47.5
GB 40 – DAL 40
Monday 2025-09-29 · 19:15 ET DIV
NYJ NYJ 0-4 Away
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MIA MIA 1-3 Home
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain
Spread 2.5 O/U 44.5
NYJ 21 – MIA 27
✗ model missed it · had NYJ 50.6%
Monday 2025-09-29 · 20:15 ET
CIN CIN 2-2 Away
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DEN DEN 2-2 Home
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain
Spread 7.5 O/U 44.5
CIN 3 – DEN 28
✓ model called it · had DEN 73.0%