Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 16Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 95%
(11:11) 92-H.Mevis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 18 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 86%
(3:30) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.
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Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%
(11:49) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 67%
(9:40) 38-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.
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Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 99%
(1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 91%
(:05) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:53) 42-E.Evans punts 64 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-S.Sims to ARI 27 for 18 yards (56-S.Dolac).
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Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 71Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 39%
(11:26) (Punt formation) 39-M.Haack pass deep middle to 31-E.Demercado to LA 43 for 28 yards (19-X.Smith).
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Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(10:18) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to ARI 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-S.Sims to ARI 24 for 9 yards (34-T.Ingle).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(13:40) 39-M.Haack punts 52 yards to LA 34, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(9:27) 39-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LA 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-X.Smith to LA 19 for 9 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson; 31-E.Demercado).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 11 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%
(1:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at LA 18 for -7 yards (94-D.Johnson).
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Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 65%
(11:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-D.Walker for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%
(9:31) 3-C.Waitman punts 33 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 19 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(5:11) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin to PIT 25 for 9 yards (32-T.Simpson).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(1:47) 97-Ca.Heyward reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 45 for no gain (97-B.Urban; 0-R.Smith).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%
(13:37) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 39Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 62%
(8:56) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 14 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:22) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin to PIT 17 for 2 yards (49-J.Higgins; 24-M.Starks).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 15 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(5:47) 3-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 55%
(3:19) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(9:04) 97-Ca.Heyward reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to BAL 1 for 1 yard (98-T.Jones; 49-J.Higgins).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%
(4:31) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:15) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-35-J.Hummel.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(11:02) 3-C.Waitman punts 33 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-33-J.Sawyer.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 50 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 34%
(:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely to PIT 24 for 26 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt].
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Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 28%
(7:32) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
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Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(2:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%
(14:58) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to TB 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-29-A.Evans.
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Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:30) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CAR 13, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 16 for 3 yards (48-J.Gray).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(13:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 47 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 64%
(10:31) 10-R.Fitzgerald 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 22%
(8:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CAR 7, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(4:37) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
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Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 78%
(14:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%
(5:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-C.Jackson), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 48 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 32%
(3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).
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Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 44 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%
(:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CAR 3, Center-86-E.Deckers. 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 3 for no gain (48-J.Gray).
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Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(12:52) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-W.Wagner. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 5 for 2 yards (37-P.Jules; 43-J.Giles-Harris).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(6:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to CIN 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-K.Williams pushed ob at CIN 30 for 8 yards (20-D.Ross; 86-B.Whiteheart).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 37%
(9:51) 8-R.Rehkow punts 38 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 18 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(7:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to CIN 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 50 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-W.Wagner. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 30 for 4 yards (37-P.Jules).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(4:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CIN 19, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-K.Williams to CIN 21 for 2 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(13:13) 3-J.Jeudy left end to CLE 49 for 5 yards (49-B.Carter).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 98%
(8:05) 25-A.Szmyt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%
(4:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki to CLE 44 for 3 yards (30-D.Bush).
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Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 52%
(2:02) 8-R.Rehkow punts 35 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%
(10:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to CIN 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 12-K.Williams.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 50 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 37%
(3:56) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 82 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 71%
(2:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to CIN 36, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-K.Williams to CIN 39 for 3 yards (28-T.Avery).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 31 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 80%
(:03) 25-A.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. ** Injury Update: CIN-23-D.Hill has returned to the game.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 33%
(12:39) 12-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to DAL 1, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-23-A.Green.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 86%
(9:20) 30-B.Sauls 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(5:24) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 17 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%
(1:20) 30-B.Sauls 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.79 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(9:48) 30-B.Sauls 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%
(2:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (36-R.Payton). Penalty on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 82Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 55%
(12:47) 5-B.Anger punts 65 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 38 for 21 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker; 40-H.Luepke).
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Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 39Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 59%
(6:56) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 38%
(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Milton left end pushed ob at NYG 24 for 23 yards (36-R.Payton).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%
(9:25) 30-B.Sauls 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(4:29) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYG 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 21 for 6 yards (29-C.Goodwin).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 74 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(:27) 12-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to DAL 38, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
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Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%
(8:40) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 49%
(3:49) 19-T.Taylor punts 32 yards to DET 12, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 22 for 10 yards (81-D.Smythe).
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Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(11:32) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(9:59) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to DET 15, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 24 for 9 yards (46-S.Daly; 33-J.Jones).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 36%
(2:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to DET 38 for 11 yards (13-J.Mills).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 80%
(:34) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to DET 23 for 7 yards (55-D.Barnes). FUMBLES (55-D.Barnes), RECOVERED by DET-99-T.Wheat at DET 23. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland (55-D.Barnes).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(13:45) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to DET 20, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q3 DET 4th & 19 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(10:41) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to CHI 16, Center-49-H.Hatten. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 31 for 15 yards (49-H.Hatten; 15-G.Stuard).
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Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(2:15) 39-J.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 43%
(11:27) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to CHI 12, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 69 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(1:55) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to DET 23, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 37 for 14 yards (21-T.Homer).
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Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%
(10:32) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(9:14) 19-D.Whelan punts 62 yards to MIN 2, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-16-B.Melton.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 72%
(6:36) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to GB 30, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-26-T.Jackson.
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Q1 GB 4th & 18 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(4:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 59%
(:51) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to GB 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.
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Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 58%
(13:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to MIN 22, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 82-J.Jones.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(12:41) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to GB 30, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
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Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 30%
(9:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to MIN 9, Center-42-M.Orzech. 82-J.Jones to MIN 9 for no gain (16-B.Melton). GB-16-B.Melton was injured during the play.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 21Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 92%
(4:34) (No Huddle) 9-J.McCarthy up the middle to GB 20 for 1 yard (57-B.Cox; 33-E.Williams). Green Bay challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%
(3:05) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q3 GB 4th & 15 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%
(10:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 30 yards to MIN 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 82-J.Jones.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(7:16) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to GB 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 84-J.Keeney-James.
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Q3 GB 4th & 20 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(2:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 57 yards to MIN 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 82-J.Jones to MIN 8 for 5 yards (34-S.Bartholomew).
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Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to MIN 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 82-J.Jones.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 19 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%
(4:13) 16-W.Reichard 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 5 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(:01) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 82%
(6:41) 15-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 71Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(4:20) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox to IND 45 for 16 yards (31-D.Clark).
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Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 79%
(:39) 10-B.Grupe 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin. PENALTY on IND-16-A.Dulin, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 21.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%
(4:07) 6-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to IND 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 2-J.Downs.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%
(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%
(11:35) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to IND 9, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 2-J.Downs to IND 22 for 13 yards (87-C.Stover).
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Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(10:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 6 yards (91-J.Tuimoloau; 59-B.Johnson).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 89%
(6:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%
(14:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to IND 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 88%
(11:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 4 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%
(2:42) 10-B.Grupe 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 25 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 88%
(:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q1 KC 4th & 14 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(13:06) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to LV 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 42 for 14 yards (40-E.Downs; 59-C.McDonald).
-
Q1 KC 4th & 11 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 44%
(10:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to LV 5, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 4.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 98Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:38) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to KC 46, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith ran ob at KC 46 for no gain.
-
Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 18Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%
(5:03) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(2:14) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith pushed ob at KC 20 for 11 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on KC, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.
-
Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(13:41) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LV 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 27 for 11 yards (59-C.McDonald).
-
Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 67Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(12:38) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-I.Pola-Mao. 20-I.Pola-Mao right guard to LV 36 for 3 yards (12-J.Wiley).
-
Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%
(7:24) 8-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(6:27) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 12 for no gain (13-N.Johnson).
-
Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(4:23) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to KC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 24-B.Smith.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%
(1:56) 8-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 86%
(11:49) 70-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to KC 28 for -1 yards (32-N.Bolton).
-
Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 30%
(9:07) 72-C.Godrick and 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (96-J.Laulu).
-
Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%
(4:16) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 69%
(13:21) 8-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:30) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LV 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at LV 21 for no gain (2-J.Williams).
-
Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(11:31) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to KC 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
-
Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(10:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LV 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(6:06) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to KC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith to KC 6 for -1 yards (4-S.Jackson).
-
Q4 KC 4th & 18 at the 29 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 84%
(3:37) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 79 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(2:36) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to KC 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith pushed ob at KC 26 for 3 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).
-
Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 23 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%
(1:05) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 42 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 57%
(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(14:06) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
-
Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(5:09) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:04) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
-
Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(:41) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 54 yards to LAC 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-34-J.Skinner.
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 72%
(14:19) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
-
Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(10:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to LAC 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 27 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice; 40-J.Strnad).
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(6:54) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
-
Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:03) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 36 yards to LAC 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 48%
(1:30) 28-H.Haskins right end to DEN 40 for 3 yards (21-R.Moss; 9-T.Hufanga).
-
Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(14:16) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
-
Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(13:21) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DEN 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 40 for 3 yards (24-B.St-Juste; 33-D.Leonard).
-
Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%
(10:10) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
-
Q3 LAC 4th & 16 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(6:19) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 45 for 33 yards (58-M.Wax).
-
Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 48Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 35%
(3:40) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
-
Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:45) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DEN 19, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
-
Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 61%
(13:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to LAC 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
-
Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%
(11:49) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%
(8:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 30-K.Vidal to DEN 44 for -2 yards (2-P.Surtain).
-
Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 4 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%
(2:26) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 59 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance scrambles left end ran ob at DEN 44 for 15 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 34 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 71%
(:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 9-T.Harris pushed ob at DEN 22 for 12 yards (23-J.Barron).
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 11 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%
(:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete short right.
-
Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 8Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(5:57) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 14-Q.Ewers pass incomplete short right to 19-C.Wilson (51-J.Gibbens) [33-A.Jennings].
-
Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(9:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to MIA 9, Center-47-J.Ashby. 6-M.Washington to MIA 11 for 2 yards (47-J.Ashby; 48-J.Tavai).
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 81Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EPp(convert) 63%
(7:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to NE 31, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-81-T.Wease.
-
Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 75%
(5:04) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle to NE 40 for no gain (25-T.Dodson; 20-J.Brooks).
-
Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%
(1:42) 36-A.Borregales 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Z.Sieler), Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Marshall at 50. 33-J.Marshall to NE 40 for 10 yards (81-A.Hooper).
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 72%
(:32) 47-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 16 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(4:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 27 yards to NE 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:47) 16-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to NE 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-27-E.Bonner. PENALTY on MIA-27-E.Bonner, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NE 44.
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(11:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to NE 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 86-E.Chism.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(9:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to MIA 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-15-M.Mapu. PENALTY on MIA-18-N.Westbrook-Ikhine, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 9.
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:54) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NE 31, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 86-E.Chism.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 75%
(5:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to MIA 17, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 82 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:58) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to NE 36, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-18-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:08) 13-B.Pinion punts 69 yards to NO 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-N.Miller-Hines to NO 19 for 11 yards (34-J.Robinson).
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 79%
(10:35) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to NO 23 for 9 yards (33-J.Sanker; 21-J.Reid).
-
Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 73%
(6:19) 32-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to ATL 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to ATL 27 for 2 yards (31-J.Howden).
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(4:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to NO 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-N.Brooks.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(3:31) 32-K.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Robinson, Center-49-Z.Wood, RECOVERED by ATL-84-F.Franks at NO 8. 84-F.Franks pushed ob at NO 5 for 3 yards (7-T.Hill).
-
Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 67%
(14:18) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%
(10:23) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(3:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to NO 6, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis to NO 20 for 14 yards (35-N.Brooks).
-
Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(:53) 32-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to ATL 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.
-
Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%
(8:55) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-21-J.Reid, Defensive Offside, declined.
-
Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 55%
(6:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 29 for 14 yards (20-D.Alford).
-
Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 91%
(4:06) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 7-T.Hill to ATL 9 for 13 yards (39-C.Henderson; 0-D.Deablo).
-
Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(2:19) 39-C.Smyth 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%
(10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(9:53) 32-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to ATL 24 for 9 yards (53-J.Ford).
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 20 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 93%
(2:57) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 56 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Estime left tackle to NO 46 for 2 yards (39-C.Henderson; 55-K.Elliss).
-
Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(6:41) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.
-
Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 70%
(4:38) (Shotgun) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to NYJ 33 for no gain (95-E.Watts).
-
Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:11) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to BUF 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 0-K.Coleman.
-
Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 68%
(14:52) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 83-K.Latu to NYJ 27 for 7 yards (95-E.Watts).
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 28%
(7:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete short left to 31-K.Herbert [57-A.Epenesa].
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(3:33) 4-B.Cook left guard to NYJ 36 for 2 yards (57-A.Epenesa).
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 49%
(:36) 14-A.McNamara punts 39 yards to BUF 2, impetus ends at BUF 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-K.Nwangwu.
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(12:52) 4-B.Cook left guard to NYJ 39 for no gain (57-A.Epenesa). PENALTY on BUF-57-A.Epenesa, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.
-
Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%
(7:52) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(6:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-53-M.Walker.
-
Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(2:19) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to NYJ 3 for -2 yards (91-J.Briggs).
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(:05) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to BUF 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-K.Coleman to BUF 45 for 2 yards (82-A.Smith).
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 30 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 77%
(2:12) 26-Ty.Johnson right end to NYJ 28 for 2 yards (36-J.Taylor; 53-M.Walker).
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.
-
Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 88Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 59%
(6:04) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to SEA 39, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed to 50 for 11 yards (46-J.Weeks). PENALTY on SF-49-G.Wallow, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
-
Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 62%
(2:33) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 13 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 81%
(12:32) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 59%
(9:41) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 44-K.Juszczyk (27-T.Woolen) [90-J.Reed].
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 84%
(5:23) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 79%
(1:10) 18-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
-
Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:21) 7-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 37 for 19 yards (33-S.Neal).
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 42%
(6:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to SF 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.
-
Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 82Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EPp(convert) 75%
(4:37) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to SEA 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%
(14:18) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 8 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(2:24) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 76 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Kittle [58-D.Hall]. SF-13-B.Purdy was injured during the play.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:15) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 20. 11-P.Washington to JAX 20 for no gain (12-M.Kinsey).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-C.Dike to TEN 31 for 9 yards (51-V.Miller).
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Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(15:00) 3-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:10) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 51Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%
(:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor (23-F.Oluokun).
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Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(13:30) 3-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 17 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 35%
(9:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 76Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 70%
(7:05) 3-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington to JAX 25 for 6 yards (12-M.Kinsey).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 71%
(1:08) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 32%
(13:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 36 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 66%
(2:55) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor to JAX 26 for 10 yards (21-C.Braswell).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 34 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 71%
(2:00) 6-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 29%
(12:31) 10-B.Mann punts 35 yards to WAS 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by PHI-29-A.Dillon.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 44%
(7:25) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 39 for 5 yards (0-J.Uche).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(2:36) 16-J.Moody 24 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 98%
(4:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Calcaterra [55-J.Martin].
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Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:01) 10-T.Way punts 63 yards to PHI 9, impetus ends at PHI 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(11:45) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 88-R.Cracraft to WAS 33 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:59) 10-T.Way punts 43 yards to PHI 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-B.Covey to PHI 27 for 8 yards (51-A.Kaho).
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Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%
(:35) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 52%
(8:44) 10-B.Mann punts 36 yards to WAS 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 31 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 77%
(1:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 83-K.Granson.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 61 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59%
(1:04) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-B.Covey to PHI 28 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 17 at the 79 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 31%
(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 2-J.Dotson.