Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EPp(convert) 75%
(13:22) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to SF 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-S.Moore to SF 16 for 8 yards (42-J.Woods).
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Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 53%
(8:41) 7-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%
(12:59) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 37%
(8:05) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
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Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%
(:43) 18-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%
(10:14) 18-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(4:28) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 33 for 13 yards (33-S.Neal; 89-L.Farrell).
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Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%
(1:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SF 4, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-4-K.Hodge.
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Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 56%
(12:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 17 for 5 yards (81-M.Turner).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 70%
(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 54 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 70%
(12:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Reynolds.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%
(5:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(2:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to CAR 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-K.Nwangwu.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 24%
(14:56) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (9-W.McDonald; 53-M.Walker).
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 16Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%
(11:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 20%
(8:59) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NYJ 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(7:48) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to CAR 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 48 for 11 yards (54-J.Weston; 89-J.Ruckert).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:19) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to NYJ 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 13 for 5 yards (87-B.Tremayne). PENALTY on NYJ-29-J.Brownlee, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NYJ 8.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 58%
(3:56) 14-A.McNamara punts 56 yards to CAR 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 48 for 15 yards (27-M.Moore).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 38%
(2:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 52%
(13:32) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle left end pushed ob at NYJ 28 for 12 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%
(10:43) 10-R.Fitzgerald 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%
(7:16) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CAR 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-53-M.Walker.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 57%
(11:22) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to NYJ 34 for 4 yards (95-Q.Williams).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 19 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 44%
(9:00) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 79%
(6:30) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 66 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(4:51) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NYJ 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 28 for 14 yards (0-J.Sanders).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 52 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 62% p(FG) 22%
(2:56) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to NYJ 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 86 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 52 yards to CAR 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 43 for 9 yards (47-A.Beck).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(7:38) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.
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Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 35%
(3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden ran ob at ARI 43 for 8 yards.
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Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 67%
(1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 87-R.Doubs.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%
(13:35) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
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Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(9:10) 35-L.Havrisik 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 91%
(5:06) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.
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Q2 GB 4th & 17 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:16) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to ARI 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 29 for 13 yards (30-C.Brooks).
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Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 56%
(13:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
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Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(8:05) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to ARI 28, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 32%
(5:58) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie).
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Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 29 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 84%
(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 27 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.88 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 86%
(:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle (29-X.McKinney) [52-R.Gary].
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Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EPp(convert) 72%
(13:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to HOU 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-38-B.Russell.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EPp(convert) 61%
(5:17) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 61%
(3:01) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle to HOU 37 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 51-W.Anderson).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(13:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to SEA 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 32 for 19 yards (45-E.Speed).
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Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(10:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to HOU 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-B.Berrios to HOU 24 for 8 yards (38-B.Russell).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(9:19) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to SEA 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 43 for 15 yards (88-H.Bryant).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%
(2:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 72%
(:23) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%
(12:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at HOU 11 for 18 yards.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(10:37) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 53%
(8:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to SEA 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 82%
(5:19) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(3:15) (No Huddle) 27-W.Marks left tackle to HOU 39 for -2 yards (0-D.Lawrence).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 18 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(:03) 6-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to SEA 40, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton to SEA 47 for 7 yards (35-J.Hansen).
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Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 35%
(13:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to HOU 11, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-B.Berrios pushed ob at HOU 21 for 10 yards (38-B.Russell).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(12:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to SEA 22, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-T.Horton to SEA 36 for 14 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale; 39-H.To'oTo'o).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 45%
(9:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 27-W.Marks (42-D.Thomas) [99-L.Williams].
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Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%
(6:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 14-J.Noel pushed ob at SEA 3 for 21 yards (8-C.Bryant).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Higgins.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 99 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(4:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to HOU 43, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-B.Berrios to 50 for 7 yards (28-N.Pritchett).
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Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 88%
(7:39) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(5:26) 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 39 for no gain (23-T.Jefferson; 99-J.Caldwell). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 40 for 1 yard (23-T.Jefferson; 99-J.Caldwell).
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 93%
(1:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to LAC 12 for 7 yards (3-D.James).
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Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 98%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%
(13:38) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Lovato, Touchback.
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Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to LAC 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Davis to LAC 20 for -3 yards (38-C.Lammons).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(13:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EPp(convert) 64%
(12:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 75Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 43%
(8:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 9-T.Harris to LAC 34 for 9 yards (35-J.Edwards; 23-K.Moore).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 39 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 64%
(5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to IND 28 for 11 yards (38-C.Lammons). LAC-73-M.Becton was injured during the play.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(13:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 27 yards to LA 40, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
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Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 94%
(8:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 13 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(5:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to LA 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at LA 21 for 13 yards (56-Y.Abdullah).
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Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 39%
(13:15) (No Huddle) 11-P.Washington right end to LA 43 for 3 yards (1-E.Forbes).
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Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 42%
(11:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to LA 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(10:15) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to JAX 38, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-P.Washington for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on JAX-22-J.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 75%
(7:02) 39-C.Little 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(1:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left tackle to LA 7 for 4 yards (8-J.Verse; 31-D.Williams).
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Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 50%
(13:57) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to JAX 17, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 78%
(10:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.Brown.
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Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 25%
(8:17) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to JAX 9, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%
(5:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 12-T.Hunter [0-B.Young].
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Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:53) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to JAX 26, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 43 for 17 yards (51-T.Reeder).
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Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(1:05) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to JAX 21, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-25-T.Brown.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 15 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to LA 38, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-X.Smith to LA 38 for no gain (22-J.Jones).
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 77%
(11:19) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 18-T.Ferguson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 38 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%
(3:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 12-T.Hunter to LA 22 for 16 yards (3-K.Curl) [91-K.Turner].
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Q4 JAX 4th & 13 at the 14 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 5-D.Brown (3-K.Curl).
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Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 39%
(11:52) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to KC 8, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
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Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EPp(convert) 60%
(3:07) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to KC 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 16 for 11 yards (51-M.Koonce).
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(15:00) 29-K.Hunt left guard to KC 43 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby).
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Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 49%
(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to KC 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 81-N.Remigio MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 9. 81-N.Remigio to KC 6 for -3 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
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Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(7:09) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to KC 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at KC 27.
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Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%
(2:41) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 58Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(:12) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Thornton.
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Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 38Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%
(13:23) 14-M.Araiza punts 30 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-54-L.Chenal.
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Q4 LV 4th & 20 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(11:54) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to KC 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 81-N.Remigio to KC 32 for 7 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).
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Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 29%
(7:15) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
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Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 5 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%
(4:52) (Shotgun) 24-B.Smith up the middle to LV 4 for 1 yard (45-D.White).
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Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 87 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 74%
(2:44) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 43, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
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Q4 KC 4th & 13 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LV 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 26 for 6 yards (21-J.Hicks; 54-L.Chenal).
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(12:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-32-J.Brents, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.
-
Q1 MIA 4th & 16 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(9:11) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to CLE 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 31 for 7 yards (49-J.Cardona).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%
(2:21) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%
(14:18) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(4:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CLE 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 19 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(3:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to MIA 49, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 6-M.Washington to CLE 40 for 11 yards (50-R.Sunahara; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%
(:03) 47-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 19 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to CLE 41, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 41 for no gain (27-E.Bonner). PENALTY on MIA-82-D.Eskridge, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 41. Penalty on MIA-27-E.Bonner, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, declined.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 38Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 55%
(10:33) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to MIA 8, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-17-J.Baker.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 83Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(8:19) 31-O.Gordon right guard to MIA 19 for 2 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 17-J.Baker).
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 63%
(3:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 6-M.Washington to CLE 28 for 7 yards (9-G.Delpit) [95-M.Garrett]. MIA-6-M.Washington was injured during the play.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 20 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 35%
(12:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to MIA 5, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-D.McMillon. ** Injury Update: MIA-6-M.Washington has returned to the game.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 40%
(8:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to CLE 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 44 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 38%
(3:48) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to MIA 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 85 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 52%
(2:22) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short right to 82-D.Eskridge to MIA 20 for 5 yards (93-S.Harris).
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 49 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 25%
(:42) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers sacked at MIA 41 for -10 yards (31-D.McMillon).
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 72%
(12:24) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q1 NE 4th & 12 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%
(6:50) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to TEN 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 26 for 15 yards (91-E.Ponder).
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%
(12:25) 3-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NE 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-M.Harris.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 70%
(1:53) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 58Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 51%
(:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 9Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%
(8:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas to TEN 4 for 5 yards (50-C.Barton).
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(5:27) 3-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to NE 35, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 19 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(3:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(1:07) 3-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to NE 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-M.Harris.
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Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 37Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 57%
(8:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 22 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 46Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 32%
(5:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 2-T.Spears to NE 35 for 11 yards (15-M.Mapu).
-
Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(5:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 34 yards to TEN 25, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 35 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 62%
(2:00) 26-T.Jennings up the middle to TEN 32 for 3 yards (93-T.Sweat; 53-J.Ward).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 50%
(13:43) 19-T.Taylor punts 40 yards to NO 19, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(9:38) 16-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(8:11) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to CHI 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 24 for 8 yards (49-Z.Wood).
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Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 69%
(3:00) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%
(14:10) 16-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 50%
(1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to CHI 43 for -1 yards (98-M.Sweat, 49-T.Edmunds).
-
Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%
(1:18) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to NO 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
-
Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(4:10) 16-J.Moody 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(13:30) 19-T.Taylor punts 47 yards to NO 21, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 20 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(10:50) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to CHI 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 34 for 10 yards (53-J.Ford).
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%
(6:26) 16-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 26 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 85%
(4:29) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle intended for 88-J.Stoll INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (53-T.Edwards) at CHI 22. 49-T.Edmunds to CHI 32 for 10 yards (41-A.Kamara).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 26 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 85%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to NO 18 for 8 yards (21-J.Reid).
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Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%
(12:53) 12-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:30) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to NYG 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 60%
(11:16) 12-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 63%
(8:33) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to NYG 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
-
Q1 DEN 4th & 18 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(2:05) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 59 yards to NYG 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 27 for 10 yards (26-D.Key).
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:11) 12-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-M.Mims to DEN 32 for 17 yards (86-T.Fidone).
-
Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(14:57) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to NYG 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 18 for 5 yards (26-D.Key; 46-A.Prentice).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%
(10:59) 6-J.Dart left guard to DEN 12 for 1 yard (15-N.Bonitto; 49-A.Singleton). (Virtual Measurement).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 55%
(6:40) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix left end to NYG 39 for 3 yards (24-D.Belton).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%
(3:39) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to NYG 1 for 1 yard (24-D.Belton).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(1:11) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to DEN 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 47%
(12:50) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to NYG 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 18 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 55%
(7:08) 12-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to DEN 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(6:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 61 yards to NYG 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 41 for 13 yards (34-J.Skinner).
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(2:51) 12-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to DEN 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 32 for 12 yards (47-N.Hewitt).
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 19 at the 74 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 26%
(1:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep left to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 45 for 19 yards (29-J.McMillian). PENALTY on DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 45.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(11:30) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 46 for 1 yard (61-J.Redmond; 50-L.Rodriguez).
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Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 69%
(7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(:38) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to MIN 16, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%
(9:44) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(6:37) 16-W.Reichard 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:30) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to MIN 26, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 6 yards (48-P.Johnson).
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Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 37%
(1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 34 yards to PHI 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
-
Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%
(9:05) 16-W.Reichard 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%
(14:19) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(10:10) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 15 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%
(2:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison pushed ob at PHI 10 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean).
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 11 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%
(2:00) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 26%
(7:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 37 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-W.Wagner. 85-K.Williams to PIT 26 for 10 yards (26-T.Anderson; 89-D.Sample).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 51%
(6:06) 3-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
-
Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%
(2:52) 8-R.Rehkow punts 38 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 85-K.Williams. PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 12.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 90%
(10:31) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 9Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%
(9:30) 16-J.Flacco up the middle to PIT 7 for 2 yards (99-D.Harmon; 55-C.Holcomb).
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Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(7:58) 2-E.McPherson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 85%
(7:03) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(5:26) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 17 at the 85 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(2:56) 8-R.Rehkow punts 60 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-W.Wagner. 85-K.Williams pushed ob at PIT 42 for 17 yards (55-L.Wilson).
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 18 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%
(:11) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 60%
(9:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to DET 35, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to DET 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 96%
(:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa.
-
Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 30%
(13:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to DET 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(10:18) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to TB 26, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-K.Johnson to TB 36 for 10 yards (49-H.Hatten; 15-G.Stuard).
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Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 37%
(7:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to DET 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(4:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to DET 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(3:06) 3-J.Fox punts 66 yards to TB 25, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-K.Johnson to TB 38 for 13 yards (53-T.Nowaske).
-
Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 71%
(1:56) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
-
Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 85%
(10:21) 65-D.Feeney reported in as eligible. 1-R.White left tackle to DET 24 for 4 yards (51-R.Lopez; 46-J.Campbell).
-
Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 59%
(2:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to DET 25, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds. PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DET 25.
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Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 37%
(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at TB 49 for 1 yard (96-G.Gaines; 31-A.Winfield).
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Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 50%
(13:12) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to TB 11, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 63Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(11:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 41 for 4 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Detroit challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 40 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
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Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 62%
(10:23) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 84%
(7:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton to DET 22 for 7 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
-
Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 12 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%
(4:29) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (38-N.Whiteside).
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Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 85 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(4:10) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to TB 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-K.Johnson to TB 33 for 11 yards (53-T.Nowaske).
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Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 62 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(:19) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to TB 21, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(11:46) 10-T.Way punts 58 yards to DAL 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 84%
(6:19) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EPp(convert) 77%
(4:48) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to DAL 22, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 26 for 4 yards (18-T.Owens).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 30%
(2:14) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(14:17) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to WAS 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 47%
(10:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz (14-M.Bell). Penalty on WAS-72-J.Conerly, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 12 at the 43Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%
(7:27) 17-B.Aubrey 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(5:40) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to DAL 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 27 for no gain (35-P.Butler).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(2:05) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to WAS 24, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-J.Lane to WAS 32 for 8 yards (43-M.Davis).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%
(12:48) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 71%
(10:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 11-L.McCaffrey.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%
(6:57) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to WAS 8, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 94 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(4:45) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to DAL 35, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler. PENALTY on DAL-21-C.Carson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 35.