Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%
(10:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at ARI 11 for -7 yards (10-J.Sweat).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 84%
(3:42) 38-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(7:18) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%
(2:35) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 21Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (29-D.Burke) [10-J.Sweat].
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Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(12:59) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to DAL 32, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-21-C.Carson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 32.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 36 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 71%
(2:35) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 18-M.Harrison.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:27) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NE 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%
(4:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NE 6, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
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Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 52%
(3:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to ATL 32, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Agnew ran ob at ATL 47 for 15 yards (53-C.Elliss).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to NE 28, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 81%
(1:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (0-C.Gonzalez).
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Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(6:30) 36-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(5:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NE 35, Center-49-L.McCullough. 25-M.Jones to NE 48 for 13 yards (28-M.Ford).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%
(14:12) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 38%
(9:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to ATL 15, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 92%
(6:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to NE 10 for 10 yards (7-C.Davis).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 8 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%
(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 67 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to ATL 6, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Agnew pushed ob at ATL 19 for 13 yards (47-J.Ashby).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 20 at the 58 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(2:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NE 16, Center-49-L.McCullough. 25-M.Jones to NE 18 for 2 yards (84-F.Franks; 4-K.Hodge).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 31Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 78%
(12:11) 47-R.Patterson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(10:37) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to MIA 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-39-K.Jackson.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%
(8:30) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%
(2:40) 47-R.Patterson 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 26%
(10:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to BAL 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-L.Wester to BAL 23 for 17 yards (3-K.Britt).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 19 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(9:05) 11-J.Stout punts 60 yards to MIA 26, Center-46-N.Moore. 6-M.Washington to BAL 39 for 35 yards (11-J.Stout). PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 87%
(8:02) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 63%
(5:47) 11-J.Stout punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%
(1:08) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 28-D.Achane.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65%
(:41) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 6-M.Washington to MIA 19 for 3 yards (27-T.Tampa).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 17 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(6:34) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to 50, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-46-I.Johnson. PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%
(2:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to BAL 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 40%
(:26) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 48%
(13:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 19-C.Wilson to BAL 37 for 7 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 63%
(11:39) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(8:09) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:31) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to GB 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-R.Doubs to GB 28 for 6 yards (87-B.Tremayne; 55-M.Njongmeta).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(3:47) 9-B.Young scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 45 for 4 yards (56-E.Cooper).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(3:15) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to GB 5 for 1 yard (94-K.Brooks; 29-X.McKinney).
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Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%
(:05) 17-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 85%
(10:38) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%
(7:48) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to GB 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.
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Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 62%
(14:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at CAR 28 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
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Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(11:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Doubs [11-N.Scourton].
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Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:35) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to GB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at GB 29 for no gain (0-J.Sanders).
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 42%
(5:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 18-M.Heath to CAR 32 for 11 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%
(8:50) (Shotgun) 75-O.Trapilo reported in as eligible. 2-D.Moore pass short right to 18-C.Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%
(5:46) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 87%
(:49) 25-K.Monangai right guard to CIN 20 for 5 yards (49-B.Carter; 44-D.Knight).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EPp(convert) 64%
(10:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 69 yards to CIN 5, Center-46-S.Daly. 15-C.Jones to CIN 15 for 10 yards (48-D.Jackson; 43-C.Jones).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%
(5:51) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%
(1:33) 8-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 81%
(:08) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (58-J.Ossai), Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%
(12:08) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 68%
(5:58) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 33 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%
(3:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to CHI 12 for 21 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 91 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(2:24) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CIN 43, Center-46-S.Daly. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 45 for 2 yards (44-N.Sewell).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 82%
(9:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at DEN 28 for 2 yards (29-J.McMillian).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 79%
(7:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%
(4:34) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(14:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel to HOU 21 for no gain (34-J.Skinner).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 62%
(13:43) 6-T.Townsend punts 67 yards to DEN 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 14 for 10 yards (11-T.Smith; 56-J.Hill).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 20Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 93%
(1:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 16 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:11) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to HOU 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-26-D.Key.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:46) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-22-J.Smith at DEN 30.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:25) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to HOU 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at DEN 47 for 45 yards (92-D.Tillman; 40-J.Strnad).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%
(9:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:07) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to HOU 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel ran ob at HOU 29 for 11 yards (48-M.Fraboni). HOU-52-D.Taylor was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-48-M.Fraboni, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 29.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 48Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 42%
(5:34) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to DEN 12, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 79Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EPp(convert) 74%
(3:02) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 67 yards to HOU 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 81Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 56%
(1:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 39, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(10:53) 6-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DEN 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 20 for 12 yards (11-T.Smith; 22-J.Smith).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:57) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to HOU 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 26 for 6 yards (52-J.Elliss). PENALTY on DEN-34-J.Skinner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 60%
(7:24) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(6:13) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 76 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 73 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(4:49) 6-T.Townsend punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 50 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 37%
(1:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 83 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to DEN 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 36 for 8 yards (35-J.Hansen).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 50%
(13:32) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to IND 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 21 for 11 yards (26-B.Echols).
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 98%
(9:38) 28-J.Taylor left guard to PIT 5 for 2 yards (95-K.Benton).
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 99%
(8:07) 17-D.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 14 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(6:03) 3-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-26-B.Echols at IND 11.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(4:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Washington.
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 75Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 78%
(:30) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-R.Thomas. 25-R.Thomas up the middle to IND 28 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%
(9:14) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to IND 16 for 4 yards (20-N.Cross; 98-E.Johnson).
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Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 61%
(3:33) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 85-K.Williams to PIT 18 for 8 yards (95-A.Adebawore; 16-A.Dulin).
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Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 65Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 77%
(13:16) 17-D.Jones up the middle to IND 37 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward; 41-P.Wilson).
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Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(10:29) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to PIT 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 85-K.Williams ran ob at PIT 20 for 15 yards (46-L.Rhodes).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 62%
(7:12) 3-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to IND 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.
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Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(4:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to PIT 44 for 16 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
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Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 76%
(10:50) 12-M.Badgley 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 56%
(8:39) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to IND 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 32 for 12 yards (15-B.Skowronek).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 84%
(6:55) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 20 at the 71 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(1:13) 3-C.Waitman punts 59 yards to IND 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. Penalty on IND-31-T.Goodson, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 44%
(13:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 32 yards to LV 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 24.
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Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(11:44) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to JAX 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-P.Washington to JAX 17 for 4 yards (87-M.Mayer).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 96%
(4:33) 70-C.Van Lanen reported in as eligible. 33-B.Tuten up the middle to LV 11 for 4 yards (52-E.Roberts; 45-D.White).
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Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 69%
(11:35) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Mayer [47-D.Gardeck].
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Q2 JAX 4th & 20 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 47%
(5:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to LV 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%
(9:57) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(6:29) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. Penalty on LV-70-S.Forsythe, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Disqualification, offsetting.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%
(:20) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left end to LV 7 for 6 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 82%
(:20) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(7:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 37 yards to BUF 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 30 for 3 yards (21-J.Hicks).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 39%
(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Shakir (6-B.Cook) [56-G.Karlaftis].
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Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(12:57) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to KC 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for 5 yards (41-R.Gilliam). PENALTY on BUF-26-Ty.Johnson, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at KC 21.
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Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 28Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 83%
(9:31) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 60%
(4:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 4-R.Rice (24-C.Bishop).
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 1Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.83 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(:06) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to BUF 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 36%
(8:49) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to KC 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-56-J.Solomon.
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Q4 KC 4th & 17 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%
(14:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 4-R.Rice pushed ob at BUF 11 for 29 yards (24-C.Bishop).
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Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(11:34) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 18 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 25%
(6:52) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to KC 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 34 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 72%
(:27) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%
(12:09) 3-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to LAC 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 35%
(4:46) 3-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 15 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(3:13) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to TEN 33, Center-41-R.Lovato. 17-C.Dike for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%
(14:09) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 16 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(12:11) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to LAC 30, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%
(5:07) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 19 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:00) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to TEN 43, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. Penalty on TEN-52-J.Williams, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:31) 3-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to LAC 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 26 for 3 yards (54-D.Mausi).
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Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 72%
(:25) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EPp(convert) 65%
(13:28) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to TEN 8, Center-41-R.Lovato. 17-C.Dike to TEN 28 for 20 yards (0-D.Henley).
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Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%
(7:09) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (2-E.Molden; 6-D.Perryman). LAC-99-J.Caldwell was injured during the play.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(11:02) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to LAC 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 40 for 6 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson; 36-J.Chestnut).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 19 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 93%
(4:23) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
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Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 62%
(12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(7:58) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to MIN 36, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-18-I.TeSlaa.
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Q1 DET 4th & 16 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(:38) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to MIN 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-13-T.Felton, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at MIN 13.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(14:08) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to MIN 48, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to MIN 35 for 13 yards (36-Z.Scott; 85-B.Yurosek).
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Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(9:43) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(3:21) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to MIN 25, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
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Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:35) 3-J.Fox punts 58 yards to MIN 4, Center-49-H.Hatten. 4-M.Price to MIN 11 for 7 yards (33-S.Vaki).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 37%
(12:37) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to DET 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 84Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 66%
(11:31) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to MIN 30, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 47%
(9:26) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to DET 7, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 9 for 2 yards (37-T.Thomas).
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Q3 DET 4th & 17 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%
(:15) 39-J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:16) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to DET 25, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIN-37-T.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DET 25.
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Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 60%
(10:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to MIN 24 for 17 yards (22-H.Smith; 44-J.Metellus).
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Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%
(3:33) 16-W.Reichard 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EPp(convert) 69%
(13:10) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom).
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Q1 NO 4th & 16 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(5:04) 32-K.Kroeger punts 40 yards to LA 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 42 for 11 yards (49-Z.Wood; 27-I.Yiadom).
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Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(4:05) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to NO 4, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
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Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 87Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EPp(convert) 72%
(2:29) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 38, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%
(7:54) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:35) 32-K.Kroeger punts 46 yards to LA 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%
(:58) 16-J.Karty 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%
(6:00) 12-P.Nacua left end to NO 4 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis). LA-12-P.Nacua was injured during the play.
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(12:43) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%
(9:47) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right tackle to LA 8 for -1 yards (91-K.Turner). NO-88-J.Stoll was injured during the play.
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Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(7:22) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to NO 40, Center-47-A.Ward. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 49 for 9 yards (87-D.Allen; 19-X.Smith).
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Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 89%
(5:40) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 1-E.Forbes at LA 13. 1-E.Forbes to LA 20 for 7 yards (22-R.Shaheed).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(11:18) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 58Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(15:00) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to SEA 48 for 10 yards (13-E.Jones).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(6:57) 10-T.Way punts 63 yards to SEA 13, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-51-A.Kaho.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EPp(convert) 75%
(13:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to WAS 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-J.Lane to WAS 21 for 3 yards (42-D.Thomas; 44-C.Surratt).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%
(10:56) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to SEA 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 46Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%
(5:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right guard to SEA 39 for 7 yards (99-L.Williams).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%
(15:00) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to SEA 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 66%
(12:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to WAS 35, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 74%
(4:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to WAS 5, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-J.Lane to WAS 17 for 12 yards (32-Je.Reed; 41-C.Stoll).
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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(9:01) 10-M.Jones up the middle to SF 43 for 2 yards (53-D.Muasau).
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Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 62%
(2:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 32%
(9:36) 12-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to SF 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.
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Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 48%
(5:50) 7-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(3:42) 12-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to SF 45, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at NYG 41 for 14 yards (33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).
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Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%
(2:00) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(:49) 12-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to SF 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-S.Moore to SF 28 for 11 yards (46-Z.Barnes).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%
(:20) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
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Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(9:59) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%
(6:45) 9-G.Gano 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
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Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(5:05) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:43) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to SF 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-S.Moore to SF 24 for 9 yards (31-N.Jones; 24-D.Belton).