Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 26%
(13:01) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 49 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 39Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 59%
(8:19) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 38%
(6:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to ARI 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to SF 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore to SF 23 for 14 yards (50-C.Simon; 25-Z.Collins).
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Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(15:00) 7-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to ARI 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%
(8:48) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%
(4:26) 18-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EPp(convert) 74%
(2:19) 12-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at SF 14 for 4 yards (80-S.Fehoko).
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Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 74%
(:20) 18-E.Pineiro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:24) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to ARI 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 14 for 8 yards (28-D.Luter; 57-L.Gifford).
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Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 33%
(9:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 44 for 5 yards (20-U.Stout).
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Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%
(6:40) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey (2-Ma.Wilson).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:11) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to SF 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore to ARI 48 for 8 yards (36-K.Crawford).
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Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 57%
(12:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 1-R.Pearsall pushed ob at ARI 6 for 34 yards (13-K.Clark).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 56 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 49%
(3:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to SF 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 50 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%
(1:54) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 78%
(10:54) 39-J.Romo 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 61%
(8:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at ATL 16 for 23 yards (3-J.Bates).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 13 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 68%
(3:33) 39-J.Romo 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%
(:10) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 34-R.McCloud.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 50%
(10:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%
(5:29) 10-R.Fitzgerald 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 48%
(2:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 25 yards to CAR 31, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:10) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 34-R.McCloud to ATL 21 for no gain (29-A.Evans).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:32) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to ATL 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 34-R.McCloud to ATL 14 for no gain (81-D.Campbell).
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Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(9:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 34-R.McCloud.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(4:52) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 78%
(1:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at CAR 16. 2-M.Jackson to ATL 30 for 54 yards (34-R.McCloud).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(10:51) 73-B.Walton reported in as eligible. 5-R.Dowdle left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(8:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 1-D.Mooney.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 23 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%
(3:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(11:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to MIN 20, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 26 for 6 yards (38-D.Ivey; 49-B.Carter).
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Q1 MIN 4th & 19 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(9:02) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to CIN 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 48 for 9 yards (85-B.Yurosek).
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Q1 CIN 4th & 17 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:59) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to MIN 27, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 43 for 16 yards (46-W.Wagner; 50-S.Heyward).
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Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 30%
(1:45) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to CIN 7, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 16 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:54) 8-R.Rehkow punts 32 yards to CIN 43, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%
(9:23) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%
(4:46) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:59) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones. PENALTY on MIN-37-T.Thomas, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 37.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 44Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 52%
(:03) 16-W.Reichard 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(12:55) 8-R.Rehkow punts 68 yards to MIN 5, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 11 for 6 yards (42-O.Burks). PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 11.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(10:20) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CIN 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:14) 8-R.Rehkow punts 70 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 43 for 29 yards (25-T.Brooks).
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Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 35%
(6:05) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CIN 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 85 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(3:53) 8-R.Rehkow punts 52 yards to MIN 33, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 44 for 11 yards (37-P.Jules).
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Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 37 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 69%
(:33) (Shotgun) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right to 36-Z.Scott to CIN 17 for 20 yards (69-M.Pennel).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(13:26) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to DAL 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 43 for 9 yards (23-R.Johnson).
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Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 34Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EPp(convert) 60% p(FG) 73%
(4:26) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%
(13:53) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to DAL 14, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 33 for 19 yards (85-C.Kmet; 43-C.Jones). PENALTY on CHI-23-R.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 33.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(4:19) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(2:36) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to CHI 10, Center-44-T.Sieg. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 29 for 19 yards (18-D.Clark).
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Q3 DAL 4th & 15 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(10:12) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CHI 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 12-D.Duvernay ran ob at CHI 24 for 12 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 49%
(9:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to DAL 8, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 84Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66%
(7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert to DAL 22 for 6 yards (44-N.Sewell).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 73Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(6:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at DAL 37 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(4:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 1-J.Tolbert INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds at CHI -2. Touchback.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 73 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(4:28) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to DAL 32, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%
(11:57) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 55%
(10:23) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 39 yards to LAC 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 14 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(7:11) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-R.Lovato. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 39 for 32 yards (43-T.Dye).
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Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(4:58) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to LAC 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 18 for 7 yards (48-M.Fraboni).
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Q1 LAC 4th & 18 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:48) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to DEN 30, Center-41-R.Lovato. 19-M.Mims to LAC 46 for 24 yards (58-M.Wax; 28-H.Haskins).
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Q1 DEN 4th & 12 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%
(1:47) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 36 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 19 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(6:07) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to LAC 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 46 for 33 yards (16-J.Crawshaw; 28-T.Badie).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 32%
(:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:11) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 20, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 24Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 89%
(12:06) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(5:38) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(3:46) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to LAC 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(2:18) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to DEN 41, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 79%
(14:21) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to LAC 10 for 22 yards (32-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-32-A.Gilman, Face Mask, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 10.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%
(12:24) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%
(7:51) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Lovato, Touchback.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 73%
(5:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LAC 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 78 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:53) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 32 for 10 yards (28-T.Badie).
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Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%
(10:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 4 for 7 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
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Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(3:27) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to BAL 16, Center-49-H.Hatten. 83-L.Wester to BAL 27 for 11 yards (33-S.Vaki).
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Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 61%
(1:55) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to DET 3, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-K.Raymond to DET 7 for 4 yards (27-T.Tampa). PENALTY on DET-4-D.Reed, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at DET 3.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%
(1:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at DET 9 for -7 yards (46-J.Campbell). FUMBLES (46-J.Campbell), touched at DET 11, and recovers at DET 20.
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Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:05) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to BAL 31, Center-49-H.Hatten. 83-L.Wester to BAL 41 for 10 yards (30-K.Dorsey). PENALTY on DET-15-G.Stuard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 41.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(3:47) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to DET 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-81-D.Walker.
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Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%
(15:00) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 13 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 89%
(9:44) 33-T.Loop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 49%
(8:42) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to BAL 11, Center-49-H.Hatten. 83-L.Wester to BAL 21 for 10 yards (2-D.Thomas; 23-R.Ya-Sin).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 68 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(4:32) 11-J.Stout punts 38 yards to DET 30, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
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Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 51 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 29%
(1:56) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 31 for 20 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Penalty on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, declined.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 43%
(10:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
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Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(9:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to CLE 21, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(7:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to GB 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 0-M.Golden to GB 36 for 3 yards (89-K.Davis; 86-B.Whiteheart).
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Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%
(14:57) 17-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 24%
(11:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to GB 7, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 12 for 5 yards (5-R.Jenkins).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 43Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 31% p(FG) 46%
(:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney [90-L.Van Ness] at GB 9. 29-X.McKinney ran ob at GB 9 for no gain.
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Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to CLE 29, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 18 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(11:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to GB 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(1:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-31-D.McMillon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 20.
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Q4 GB 4th & 12 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to CLE 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 2-D.Carter to CLE 20 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on GB-59-T.Hopper, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 20.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67%
(13:41) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 35 for 1 yard (58-I.McDuffie; 7-Q.Walker).
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(11:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to GB 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-20-J.Bernard-Converse.
-
Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(9:34) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 17 at the 17 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 19% p(FG) 94%
(3:45) 25-A.Szmyt 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
-
Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 25 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%
(:27) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan, RECOVERED by CLE-0-G.Newsome at CLE 47.
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 53%
(13:34) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to JAX 3, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.
-
Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 90Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 59%
(11:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 48, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 71%
(6:45) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(:42) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to JAX 37, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington to JAX 41 for 4 yards (45-E.Speed; 35-J.Hansen). PENALTY on JAX-51-V.Miller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 41.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(14:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%
(6:57) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(5:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to HOU 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 40 for 5 yards (25-R.Lane). Penalty on HOU-29-M.Stewart, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at HOU 35. Penalty on JAX-47-D.Gardeck, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EPp(convert) 70%
(4:25) 6-T.Townsend punts 25 yards to JAX 31, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 23%
(1:01) 6-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to JAX 19, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
-
Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%
(6:27) 39-C.Little 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
-
Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 80%
(1:15) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(12:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-An.Johnson.
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(9:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 66 yards to JAX 20, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 33 for 13 yards (43-J.Johnson).
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 35%
(6:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (98-T.Settle).
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 67 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(1:12) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to HOU 46 for 13 yards (26-An.Johnson; 29-E.Murray).
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 59%
(12:45) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.73 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(7:40) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 19 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(5:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to IND 23, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%
(10:54) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 47%
(9:20) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 47Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 37%
(5:39) 6-J.Slye 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%
(3:19) 3-S.Shrader 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 44Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 45%
(:42) 6-J.Slye 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-G.Stewart), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(3:00) 17-D.Jones up the middle to IND 48 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons).
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 8Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%
(8:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 67 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 32%
(4:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right [92-N.Gallimore].
-
Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 23 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 89%
(2:22) 5-A.Richardson left tackle to TEN 21 for 2 yards (42-K.White).
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 83%
(9:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 29-T.Tracy (32-N.Bolton).
-
Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%
(3:49) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 40%
(:20) 12-J.Gillan punts 28 yards to KC 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-N.Hewitt.
-
Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%
(9:52) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%
(5:28) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q2 KC 4th & 19 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:21) 14-M.Araiza punts 43 yards to NYG 44, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-2-J.Williams. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 44.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 37%
(4:46) 12-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to KC 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-N.Remigio to KC 19 for 4 yards (23-A.Green).
-
Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EPp(convert) 72%
(1:19) 14-M.Araiza punts 43 yards to NYG 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 20 for 9 yards (41-J.Winchester).
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(10:15) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. ** Injury Update: NYG-9-G.Gano has returned to the game.
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 30 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%
(3:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-W.Robinson to KC 4 for 26 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace).
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 10 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%
(2:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson [90-C.Omenihu].
-
Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 84 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(2:14) 14-M.Araiza punts 53 yards to NYG 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 39 for 8 yards (2-J.Williams).
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 57 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to NYG 45 for 2 yards (54-L.Chenal).
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 78%
(11:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end ran ob at LA 12 for 18 yards (3-K.Curl).
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(9:08) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to LA 2 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman; 8-J.Verse).
-
Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 72%
(4:05) 16-J.Karty 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 15 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:29) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to LA 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to LA 46 for 20 yards (54-J.Trotter).
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 18 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(15:00) 10-B.Mann punts 64 yards to LA 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for 9 yards (81-G.Calcaterra). Penalty on LA-2-J.McCollough, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at LA 34. Penalty on PHI-21-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
-
Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(9:18) 16-J.Karty 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(7:55) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 31, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to LA 46 for 15 yards (54-J.Trotter).
-
Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%
(3:46) 16-J.Karty 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(2:00) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to LA 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to PHI 48 for 9 yards (39-M.Epps).
-
Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 82%
(:14) 16-J.Karty 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
-
Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 32%
(8:50) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to PHI 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%
(3:47) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to LA 10 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman; 37-Q.Lake).
-
Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 39%
(14:13) 23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 47 for -1 yards (90-J.Davis, 98-J.Carter).
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 50Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%
(12:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown (26-K.Kinchens).
-
Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 18Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 93%
(8:46) 16-J.Karty 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-J.Carter), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, recovered by LA-16-J.Karty at PHI 24. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Taunting, 9 yards, enforced between downs. Incomplete Pass by 16-J.Karty after Blocked Kick Recovery.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 4 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(1:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 14 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%
(9:49) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(5:33) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to WAS 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane pushed ob at WAS 24 for 7 yards (87-M.Mayer).
-
Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%
(1:25) 16-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:27) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to WAS 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane to LV 43 for 25 yards (87-M.Mayer). LV-87-M.Mayer was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-6-N.Igbinoghene, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 38.
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 83%
(10:00) 16-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(2:00) 7-G.Smith left guard to LV 41 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner).
-
Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(:36) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to WAS 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane to WAS 35 for 10 yards (26-D.Porter).
-
Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:51) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to WAS 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 18 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(11:04) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to LV 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 1-T.Tucker to LV 36 for 5 yards (58-J.Magee).
-
Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(9:54) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 15 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(5:34) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to WAS 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane to WAS 37 for 14 yards (54-B.Jackson).
-
Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 50%
(:21) 7-G.Smith left guard to WAS 40 for 3 yards (54-B.Wagner; 4-F.Luvu).
-
Q4 WAS 4th & 20 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 24% p(FG) 60%
(6:55) 10-T.Way punts 32 yards to LV 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-34-A.Hamilton.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 49 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 34%
(4:52) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube left guard to WAS 49 for no gain (4-F.Luvu).
-
Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 56%
(2:37) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BUF 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 37 for 15 yards (3-K.Britt; 53-C.Goode).
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(10:52) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.
-
Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%
(6:07) 15-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(8:54) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to BUF 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-B.Codrington MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 20.
-
Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 60%
(6:43) 16-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 6-M.Washington to MIA 36 for 11 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(5:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to BUF 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.
-
Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:12) 16-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to MIA 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 6-M.Washington to MIA 33 for 11 yards (26-Ty.Johnson; 22-R.Davis).
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 67%
(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at BUF 21 for 15 yards (9-T.Rapp).
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 79%
(:27) 15-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 47%
(12:26) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep right to 41-A.Kamara.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(7:51) 32-K.Kroeger punts 61 yards to SEA 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:58) 32-K.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by 23-D.Bell, Center-49-Z.Wood, recovered by NO-53-J.Ford at NO 11.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(12:51) 19-B.Grupe 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:44) 32-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to SEA 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 24 for 11 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
-
Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 76%
(2:53) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 38Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 65%
(1:34) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%
(11:33) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q3 NO 4th & 12 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:05) 32-K.Kroeger punts 51 yards to SEA 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 35 for 8 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%
(4:42) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(13:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to NO 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 44 for 40 yards (81-E.Saubert).
-
Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 65%
(11:14) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 1-D.Kendrick at SEA 25. 1-D.Kendrick to SEA 25 for no gain (88-J.Stoll).
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 50%
(9:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:01) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to SEA 45, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(2:46) 32-K.Kroeger punts 37 yards to SEA 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 20Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%
(8:55) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q1 TB 4th & 20 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 70%
(2:26) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%
(14:04) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(9:13) 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 43 for -1 yards (5-H.Reddick).
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Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 42%
(7:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to NYJ 18, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(5:50) 14-A.McNamara punts 46 yards to TB 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-K.Johnson to TB 30 for no gain (82-A.Smith).
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Q2 TB 4th & 17 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(4:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to NYJ 38, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
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Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%
(1:47) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(1:31) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to TB 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-K.Johnson to TB 23 for -1 yards (37-Q.Stiggers).
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Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67%
(:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to NYJ 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.
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Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(5:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 47Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%
(:35) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 10-A.Lazard to TB 38 for 9 yards (23-T.Smith; 25-J.Parrish).
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Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.
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Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 66%
(6:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on NYJ-9-W.McDonald, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 4 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(3:46) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 10-A.Lazard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 25 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 87%
(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(5:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-26-B.Echols, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(7:28) 3-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to NE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
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Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 85Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 75%
(5:54) 38-R.Stevenson left end to NE 25 for 10 yards (40-J.Peppers; 21-C.Clark).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(11:35) 3-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to NE 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 11 yards (33-J.Sawyer).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(8:47) 3-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to NE 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 42%
(2:49) 32-T.Henderson left end to PIT 44 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward). PENALTY on PIT-51-N.Herbig, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 44.
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Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 95%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 50%
(12:35) 3-C.Waitman punts 25 yards to NE 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 58%
(8:28) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at PIT 33 for 7 yards (6-P.Queen).
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Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 28 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 83%
(1:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas to PIT 29 for -1 yards (26-B.Echols).