Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(7:46) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 16Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%
(5:00) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 52%
(2:58) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to DAL 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-J.Moreno-Cropper.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:16) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NYJ 16, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams to NYJ 33 for 17 yards (44-T.Sieg).
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(:36) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to DAL 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-J.Moreno-Cropper.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 56%
(13:33) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams to NYJ 24 for 9 yards (29-C.Goodwin).
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to DAL 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-J.Moreno-Cropper. PENALTY on DAL-83-J.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:58) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to NYJ 33, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams to NYJ 33 for no gain (83-J.Brooks).
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 42%
(5:21) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 47-A.Beck (59-K.Murray) [35-M.Liufau].
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 81%
(1:01) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(14:56) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYJ 16, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams pushed ob at NYJ 31 for 15 yards (2-J.Thomas). DAL-83-J.Brooks was injured during the play.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 49%
(13:47) (No Huddle) 7-J.Fields up the middle to DAL 44 for no gain (41-D.Ezeiruaku). Penalty on NYJ-70-A.Membou, Offensive Offside, declined. PENALTY on DAL-7-T.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(12:17) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to NYJ 22, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 17Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 94%
(8:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short middle to 20-B.Hall to DAL 1 for 16 yards (2-J.Thomas; 59-K.Murray).
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Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 51%
(13:30) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(12:22) 10-B.Mann punts 69 yards to DEN 8, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 31 for 23 yards (83-K.Granson).
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Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 65%
(6:53) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(:32) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(4:58) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to PHI 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 25%
(2:27) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(1:26) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to PHI 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(1:02) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to DEN 40, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Mims to DEN 44 for 4 yards (37-T.Bigsby; 36-C.Latu).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 54 yards to PHI 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%
(7:25) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 33 yards to PHI 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(5:26) 10-B.Mann punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 64%
(3:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to PHI 29, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 44 for 15 yards (34-J.Skinner).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 16 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(11:22) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to DEN 29, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Mims to DEN 28 for -1 yards (36-C.Latu).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:13) 10-B.Mann punts 23 yards to DEN 32, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-29-A.Dillon.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 14 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%
(1:14) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 15 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 49%
(8:19) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(3:31) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to DET 9, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-K.Raymond to DET 23 for 14 yards (34-S.Perine). DET-11-K.Raymond was injured during the play. PENALTY on DET-15-G.Stuard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 20.
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Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(15:00) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to CIN 3, impetus ends at CIN 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-19-D.Lovett.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(8:43) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
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Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EPp(convert) 64%
(6:33) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CIN 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 15-C.Jones. PENALTY on CIN-28-J.Newton, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CIN 9.
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Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 54%
(3:54) 3-J.Fox punts 33 yards to CIN 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 76%
(:03) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(10:03) 8-R.Rehkow punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
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Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 54%
(12:40) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CIN 24, Center-49-H.Hatten. 15-C.Jones to CIN 30 for 6 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 15-G.Stuard).
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Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 44 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 46%
(2:00) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to CIN 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(2:01) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 78%
(11:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(4:11) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-40-T.Buchanan.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(9:35) 11-J.Stout punts 60 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 12 yards (49-J.Higgins; 81-D.Walker).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 39Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 63%
(5:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(:33) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 44-B.Brooks up the middle to 50 for 6 yards (40-T.Buchanan).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%
(10:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(9:06) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(7:38) 6-T.Townsend punts 59 yards to BAL 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-L.Wester to BAL 33 for 16 yards (35-J.Hansen).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 63%
(13:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to KC 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-N.Remigio to KC 9 for no gain (25-R.Lane).
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Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 36%
(9:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 65%
(8:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to KC 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-N.Remigio to KC 28 for 2 yards (25-R.Lane).
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Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(13:41) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (32-N.Bolton). FUMBLES (32-N.Bolton), RECOVERED by KC-56-G.Karlaftis at KC 2. 56-G.Karlaftis to KC 3 for 1 yard (33-B.Tuten). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:06) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to JAX 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-20-N.Williams.
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Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 61%
(13:24) 14-M.Araiza punts 45 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-P.Washington to JAX 13 for -1 yards (20-N.Williams).
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Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%
(13:58) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 34Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%
(8:13) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EPp(convert) 73%
(13:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LV 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Bachman to LV 14 for 8 yards (25-R.Thomas).
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Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(3:24) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q2 LV 4th & 17 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(9:38) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-80-I.Thomas at LV 8.
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Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:06) 8-D.Carlson punts 30 yards to IND 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
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Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(3:55) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to LV 44 for no gain (38-C.Lammons; 99-D.Buckner).
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Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%
(14:16) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 86-A.Okwuegbunam to IND 23 for 7 yards (20-N.Cross).
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Q4 LV 4th & 19 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%
(11:43) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LV 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 56%
(3:12) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at CAR 34 for 6 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 35%
(6:57) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan ran ob at MIA 27 for 21 yards [15-Ja.Phillips].
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Q2 MIA 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:54) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 56%
(9:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(7:08) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to MIA 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-M.Washington to MIA 24 for 7 yards (21-N.Scott).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(4:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to CAR 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-49-J.Cardona.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 64%
(:15) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to MIA 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-M.Washington to MIA 34 for 7 yards (21-N.Scott; 40-K.Barnes).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(13:29) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to CAR 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas. PENALTY on MIA-27-E.Bonner, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 20.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(12:33) 6-S.Martin punts 61 yards to MIA 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-M.Washington to MIA 25 for 15 yards (20-D.Dallas).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(10:23) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to CAR 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-27-E.Bonner.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 33 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 73%
(3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 85 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to CAR 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 20%
(13:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to MIN 8, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%
(8:15) 98-A.Huntington and 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to MIN 4 for 2 yards (55-E.Wilson; 26-T.Jackson).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(14:37) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to MIN 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 25%
(11:04) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to CLE 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 81Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 58%
(8:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to MIN 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 8 yards (50-R.Sunahara; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold). PENALTY on MIN-13-T.Felton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 24.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EPp(convert) 72%
(6:26) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to CLE 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 26 for 3 yards (56-A.Keys).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(4:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to MIN 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 81Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 62%
(2:41) 17-R.Wright punts 63 yards to CLE 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-G.Larvadain ran ob at CLE 34 for 16 yards (30-C.Ham; 98-B.Richter).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66%
(1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-J.Ford up the middle to CLE 45 for 2 yards (15-D.Turner; 97-J.Hargrave).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 96%
(:13) 25-A.Szmyt 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 96%
(4:37) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to MIN 9 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:10) 17-R.Wright punts 77 yards to CLE 2, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-37-T.Thomas. PENALTY on CLE-28-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at CLE 2.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 90Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 70%
(14:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to MIN 46, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 4-M.Price to CLE 42 for 12 yards (50-R.Sunahara; 28-T.Avery).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to MIN 25, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 70%
(9:46) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%
(7:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(3:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to MIN 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 4-M.Price to MIN 20 for 3 yards (31-D.McMillon; 28-T.Avery).
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Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%
(6:24) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 27 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds. PENALTY on BUF-45-S.Thompson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 15.
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Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 34%
(2:24) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
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Q1 NE 4th & 11 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(:59) 36-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%
(9:37) 15-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%
(6:34) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-24-D.Pettus.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(2:32) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NE 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 30 for no gain (28-S.Franklin).
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Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(6:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 27 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 85%
(2:21) 15-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 34 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 74%
(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:51) 32-K.Kroeger punts 51 yards to NYG 41, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-31-J.Howden.
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Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(1:44) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 73%
(7:46) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 42%
(5:34) 12-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to NO 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(2:42) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to NO 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
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Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%
(1:30) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(12:45) (No Huddle) 17-W.Robinson left end to NYG 47 for 2 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
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Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%
(6:57) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 52%
(12:50) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NO 42 for 2 yards (93-N.Shepherd).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 67%
(10:06) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 4-K.McKinstry [20-P.Werner] at NO 5. 4-K.McKinstry pushed ob at NO 5 for no gain (13-J.Hyatt).
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Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EPp(convert) 72%
(6:37) 32-K.Kroeger punts 32 yards to NYG 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(5:53) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart scrambles up the middle to NYG 49 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis).
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Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 40 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 62%
(4:12) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 22-R.Shaheed to NYG 32 for 8 yards (2-D.Banks).
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Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 28 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%
(2:00) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 17 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.57 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%
(:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson.
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Q1 LA 4th & 14 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(7:11) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to SF 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 9-S.Moore to SF 9 for no gain (56-S.Dolac).
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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 37%
(4:19) 10-M.Jones up the middle to LA 48 for 2 yards (95-P.Ford).
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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 64%
(2:11) 3-B.Robinson up the middle to LA 38 for 1 yard (48-O.Speights).
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Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 60%
(10:11) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 37 for 4 yards (91-S.Okuayinonu).
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Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 48Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 42%
(6:18) 7-T.Morstead punts 33 yards to LA 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 93%
(:02) 18-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%
(12:51) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(6:36) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 64Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(1:46) 10-M.Jones up the middle to SF 38 for 2 yards (91-K.Turner).
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Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 49%
(14:15) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LA 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for 6 yards (31-I.Guerendo).
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Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(9:19) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to LA 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 30 for 2 yards (59-C.Robinson; 57-L.Gifford).
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EPp(convert) 73%
(8:18) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to SF 2, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.
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Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 41 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 60%
(2:57) 18-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 97 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(:53) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LA 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at SF 37 for 16 yards (33-S.Neal). PENALTY on LA-25-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 40.
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Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 43 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 55%
(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to SF 30 for 13 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
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Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%
(8:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 85%
(4:10) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 18Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 93%
(14:11) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 45%
(11:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to TB 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
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Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(9:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-81-R.Miller.
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Q4 TB 4th & 17 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 53%
(7:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to SEA 1, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 21 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 91%
(3:25) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 15-T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%
(5:04) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(14:06) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 26 for 6 yards (52-J.Williams).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EPp(convert) 75%
(12:32) 12-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 77%
(8:34) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(2:12) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to ARI 11, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 18 at the 97Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:40) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to TEN 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-C.Dike to TEN 49 for 12 yards (81-T.Vokolek).
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Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 40Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 62%
(:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 48 for -12 yards (10-J.Sweat).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 47%
(:14) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback. ** Injury Update: TEN-52-J.Williams has returned to the game.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 59%
(12:51) 3-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. PENALTY on TEN, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 20.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EPp(convert) 70%
(3:22) 3-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to ARI 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 10 yards (30-K.Brooks).
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Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(2:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 37 for 17 yards (31-E.Demercado).
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Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 47%
(:55) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to ARI 7, impetus ends at ARI 2, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-54-D.Mausi.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:53) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 65 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 11 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%
(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 30%
(8:29) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 69%
(3:02) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(:04) 10-T.Way punts 48 yards to LAC 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:45) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to WAS 7, Center-41-R.Lovato, downed by LAC-24-B.St-Juste.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(5:52) 16-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Penalty on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 64%
(1:55) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Conklin.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 8 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(1:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 36 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.49 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 71%
(:05) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to WAS 15 for 21 yards (35-P.Butler).