Fourth-Down Analyzer

Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.

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2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

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Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 18

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

(9:07) 10-B.Nix up the middle to BUF 14 for 4 yards (96-D.Walker).
Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 10

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

(7:33) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 2

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

(1:33) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to DEN 1 for 1 yard (92-D.Tillman).
Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(14:49) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to BUF 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 16-M.Hardman.
Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

(2:17) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

(11:39) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 40

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 58%

(2:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 25 yards to BUF 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(11:57) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 12 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

(4:14) 15-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 32 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

(:10) 15-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

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Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 59

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP

p(convert) 52%

(13:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Noel to HOU 26 for 11 yards (49-C.Muma).
Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(13:08) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to NE 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones to NE 34 for 19 yards (45-E.Speed).
Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 28

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 84%

(9:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

(5:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 65%

(2:24) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 21-N.Chubb right guard to NE 36 for 2 yards (95-K.Tonga).
Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(10:49) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to HOU 25, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 46

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 45%

(6:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to HOU 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 91

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(6:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to NE 46, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones to NE 44 for -2 yards (42-J.Ingram; 31-D.Clark). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 38%

(1:10) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(:49) 6-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to NE 31, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at HOU 45 for 24 yards (40-A.Brinkman).
Q2 NE 4th & 11 at the 46

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 45%

(:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 42-J.Ingram at HOU -7. Touchback.
Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 7

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

(9:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(3:34) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to HOU 41, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 76%

(1:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(12:09) 6-T.Townsend punts 69 yards to NE 4, impetus ends at NE 1, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-42-J.Ingram.
Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

(5:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to HOU 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 79 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(4:17) 6-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to NE 16, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 28 for 12 yards (42-J.Ingram).
Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 61 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(1:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to HOU 21, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Noel to HOU 28 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler).
Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 53 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

(1:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 19-X.Hutchinson (14-R.Spillane).

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Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 21

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 91%

(13:02) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at LA 1. 14-C.Durant to LA 15 for 14 yards (2-D.Moore).
Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 59

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 53%

(14:05) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to CHI 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 20 for 10 yards (24-E.Neal).
Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(12:32) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to LA 24, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(9:01) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to CHI 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 32

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 76%

(4:30) 25-K.Monangai right guard to LA 32 for no gain (3-K.Curl).
Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 81%

(1:15) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. ** Injury Update: LA-1-E.Forbes has returned to the game.
Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

(:03) 92-H.Mevis 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 55

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP

p(convert) 53%

(12:08) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to CHI 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(7:40) 19-T.Taylor punts 44 yards to LA 24, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 69

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 60%

(5:42) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to CHI 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-D.Duvernay MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 8. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 23 for 15 yards (24-E.Neal; 44-J.McQuaide).
Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 32%

(3:49) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.
Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 55

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP

p(convert) 62%

(15:00) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to LA 9, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 7

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

(9:24) 12-P.Nacua right end to CHI 5 for 2 yards (31-K.Byard).
Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

(3:06) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Burden (48-O.Speights).
Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 83 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 33 yards to 50, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-24-E.Neal.
Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 14 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

(:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].

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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 40

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 58%

(11:21) 44-K.Juszczyk right end to SEA 43 for -3 yards (0-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), touched at SEA 43, ball out of bounds at SEA 43.
Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 13

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

(5:10) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 22

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 90%

(12:01) 18-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 55

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP

p(convert) 61%

(10:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 5, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.
Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 38

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 63%

(4:37) 18-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 44

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 59% p(FG) 48%

(12:10) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 42 for -14 yards (99-L.Williams).
Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

(7:10) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 62

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54%

(:52) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Bourne (8-C.Bryant).
Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(7:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to SF 13, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 19 for 6 yards (32-V.Jones; 83-D.Young).
Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 65 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(4:30) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 77 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP

p(convert) 74%

(2:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to SF 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 21 for -2 yards (48-T.Knight).