Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(13:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to BUF 6, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-25-R.Lane.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:58) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to JAX 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 76%
(3:00) 15-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 9Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 97%
(11:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence left end to BUF 7 for 2 yards (45-S.Thompson). (Virtual Measurement). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence left end to BUF 8 for 1 yard (45-S.Thompson).
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Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(4:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to BUF 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. BUF-14-T.Shavers was injured during the play.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%
(1:14) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to JAX 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 81%
(8:16) 15-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%
(5:52) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 20 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(4:05) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to JAX 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 93%
(9:42) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard to JAX 15 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 11 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%
(1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 1 for 10 yards (26-An.Johnson; 91-A.Armstead).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%
(7:06) 8-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 62Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to GB 44 for 18 yards (33-E.Williams).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 57%
(12:30) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 10-L.Burden INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Valentine at GB 12. 24-C.Valentine to GB 13 for 1 yard (10-L.Burden).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 68Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(5:19) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Burden (56-E.Cooper).
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Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 89%
(3:33) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to CHI 1 for 22 yards (29-T.Stevenson). FUMBLES (29-T.Stevenson), recovered by GB-87-R.Doubs at CHI 1.
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Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 65%
(:37) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Loveland.
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Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to CHI 32, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay ran ob at CHI 37 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 14 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(10:11) 8-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EPp(convert) 63%
(8:39) 19-D.Whelan punts 37 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-37-J.Baldwin.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%
(3:18) 18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 59-T.Hopper [94-K.Brooks] at GB 2. 59-T.Hopper to GB 9 for 7 yards (85-C.Kmet).
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Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(:48) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at GB 35 for 37 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 74%
(13:34) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q4 GB 4th & 20 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 58 yards to CHI 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 34 for 22 yards (42-M.Orzech).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 57Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 39%
(5:37) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at GB 30 for 27 yards (29-X.McKinney) [58-I.McDuffie].
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Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 26 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 86%
(2:56) 17-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 69 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at GB 44 for 13 yards (6-K.Gordon).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 29%
(12:04) 3-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 29%
(9:01) 6-T.Townsend punts 22 yards to PIT 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%
(6:06) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 27%
(:37) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 8 for 1 yard (41-P.Wilson).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:10) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to HOU 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-55-C.Holcomb.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 96%
(4:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 16-A.Thielen to HOU 9 for 4 yards (2-C.Bullock).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 17 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%
(2:00) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 27%
(:13) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to PIT 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-42-J.Ingram.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(5:45) 3-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-J.Noel to HOU 30 for 12 yards (41-P.Wilson; 40-J.Peppers).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(3:54) 6-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to PIT 10, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 14 yards (40-A.Brinkman).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%
(13:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%
(9:36) 3-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 66 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at 50. 2-C.Bullock for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 57 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-C.Austin to PIT 45 for 2 yards (11-T.Smith).
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Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 24%
(8:18) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to NE 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-M.Jones to NE 8 for no gain (33-D.Leonard).
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Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
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Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 78%
(1:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams ran ob at LAC 23 for 7 yards.
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Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%
(13:34) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.97 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(6:55) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 41%
(3:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-48-J.Tavai.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(:41) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to NE 44, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 2 yards (9-T.Harris).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(13:22) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to NE 19, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 31%
(5:18) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to NE 15, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
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Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 21Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 90%
(1:38) 36-A.Borregales 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(14:10) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
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Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%
(5:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to LAC 12, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 75 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 35%
(4:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-O.Gadsden pushed ob at LAC 35 for 10 yards (22-C.Woods).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 34 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 31% p(FG) 70%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at NE 43 for -9 yards (97-M.Williams).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(13:32) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 85-J.Mitchell (37-Q.Lake).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:34) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to LA 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-X.Smith to LA 7 for -2 yards (27-I.Simmons).
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Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 66%
(5:52) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to CAR 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
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Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 28Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 79%
(5:28) 92-H.Mevis 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 61%
(3:55) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LA 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.
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Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(2:56) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to CAR 33, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-51-T.Reeder at CAR 41.
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Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%
(1:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee (98-D.Wonnum).
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Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%
(:15) 42-E.Evans punts 29 yards to CAR 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
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Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:45) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 28Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 79%
(7:34) 10-R.Fitzgerald 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 24Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%
(4:21) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 28%
(2:53) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Hubbard.
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 76%
(11:51) 23-K.Williams up the middle to CAR 28 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown; 98-D.Wonnum).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(7:21) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to LA 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 58 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(4:18) 42-E.Evans punt is BLOCKED by 27-I.Simmons, Center-44-J.McQuaide, recovered by LA-20-R.Rivers at LA 30.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 72 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 35%
(:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 15-Ji.Horn.
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Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 56%
(5:08) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 24%
(1:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith (20-U.Stout).
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Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 22%
(:18) 7-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to PHI 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-36-M.Sigle.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(11:24) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 46 for 3 yards (95-A.Collins).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 9Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%
(6:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 18Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 92%
(2:54) 18-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(2:02) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to SF 21, impetus ends at SF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-S.Moore to SF 23 for 2 yards (42-S.Mondon).
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Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 55%
(13:37) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to SF 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(8:25) 10-B.Mann punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
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Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(7:32) 7-T.Morstead punts 25 yards to SF 46, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-41-J.Graham.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%
(2:15) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:25) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to SF 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-S.Moore MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 21. 9-S.Moore to SF 31 for 10 yards (54-J.Trotter).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%
(8:04) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 60 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to SF 45 for 15 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 21 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%
(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).