Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(10:46) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 34 for 7 yards (58-C.Rumph; 53-J.Ford).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 12 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 89%
(5:07) 38-C.Ryland 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%
(5:02) 19-B.Grupe 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(12:34) 32-K.Kroeger punts 50 yards to ARI 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 12 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%
(9:21) 38-C.Ryland 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%
(3:59) 19-B.Grupe 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 34 yards to NO 27, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.
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Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(13:59) 32-K.Kroeger punts 54 yards to ARI 6, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 6 for no gain.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(9:16) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to NO 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. ** Injury Update: ARI-25-Z.Collins has returned to the game.
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Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(8:57) 32-K.Kroeger punts 51 yards to ARI 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at NO 40 for 23 yards (88-J.Stoll).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 28 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%
(4:40) 38-C.Ryland 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-B.Bresee), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 10 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(2:44) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 19 at the 83 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to NO 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 42 for 11 yards (4-G.Dortch; 25-Z.Collins).
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Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 24 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 67% p(FG) 89%
(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to ARI 18 for 6 yards (0-W.Johnson).
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Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 18 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.13 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%
(:04) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 57%
(1:49) 40-B.Robbins punts 43 yards to BAL 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(12:14) 40-B.Robbins punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 83-L.Wester to BAL 31 for 6 yards (39-C.Lewis).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(2:51) 15-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:25) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to BUF 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 16 for no gain (38-K.Martin).
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Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(2:50) 40-B.Robbins punts 39 yards to BAL 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 16 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:27) 40-B.Robbins punts 28 yards to BAL 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-69-R.Ferguson.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 55%
(7:27) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 10 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 97%
(4:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-K.Van Noy].
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Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 62 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 60%
(1:33) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 14 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 63Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(13:47) 5-D.Brown right end to JAX 41 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%
(8:18) 39-C.Little 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 81%
(:41) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(13:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to CAR 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 16 for no gain.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 62%
(3:51) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to JAX 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-B.Martin-Scott.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%
(9:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 17-X.Legette.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(8:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 83-D.Moore to CAR 41 for 4 yards (26-An.Johnson). PENALTY on CAR-31-C.Thornton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 13 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(4:52) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to JAX 7, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-P.Washington to JAX 20 for 13 yards (36-D.Richardson; 87-B.Tremayne). Penalty on JAX-36-L.Allen, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at JAX 14. Penalty on CAR-11-N.Scourton, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 76%
(:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 4-T.McMillan (3-T.Campbell).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 74%
(10:44) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to CAR 31 for 3 yards (97-B.Brown; 94-A.Robinson).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%
(7:12) 39-C.Little 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 10 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 97%
(2:00) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 33%
(4:11) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 35-R.Sanders up the middle to CIN 46 for 2 yards (44-D.Knight).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%
(12:44) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 35-R.Sanders right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%
(9:36) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(8:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to CIN 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-C.Jones to CIN 46 for 23 yards (31-D.McMillon).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%
(:27) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 65%
(5:47) 8-R.Rehkow punts 62 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner. 2-D.Carter to CLE 25 for 15 yards (26-T.Anderson).
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Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 94%
(2:52) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 57%
(14:16) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 3-J.Jeudy.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(13:18) 8-R.Rehkow punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 49%
(9:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%
(2:25) 25-A.Szmyt 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 49 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 2-D.Carter to CLE 33 for 12 yards (46-W.Wagner; 34-S.Perine).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 20 at the 50 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 28%
(:30) 8-R.Rehkow punts 49 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-37-P.Jules.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%
(2:38) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 40Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 54%
(8:35) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 60%
(3:18) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to DAL 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 26%
(14:53) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(7:27) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to DAL 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: DAL-29-C.Goodwin has returned to the game.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 73 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(4:50) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to PHI 24, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 69 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 59%
(3:09) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to DAL 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 55 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb.
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Q1 DET 4th & 14 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:01) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to GB 37, Center-49-H.Hatten. 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 48 for 11 yards (41-A.Pittman).
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Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 16Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 95%
(4:02) 17-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%
(9:30) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 80%
(2:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to GB 19 for 11 yards (29-X.McKinney). Penalty on GB-20-J.Bullard, Illegal Contact, declined.
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Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 76%
(:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 65 yards to DET 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-K.Raymond to DET 18 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann).
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Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(9:43) 39-J.Bates 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 65%
(7:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to DET 7, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-K.Raymond to DET 21 for 14 yards (30-C.Brooks; 55-K.Enagbare).
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Q3 DET 4th & 12 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(4:24) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to GB 24, Center-49-H.Hatten. 11-J.Reed ran ob at GB 38 for 14 yards (13-C.Reynolds). PENALTY on GB-20-J.Bullard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 25.
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Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 42%
(:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to DET 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q4 DET 4th & 17 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:51) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to GB 44, Center-49-H.Hatten. 11-J.Reed to DET 36 for 20 yards (30-K.Dorsey).
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Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%
(9:11) 10-J.Love up the middle to DET 8 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell).
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Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 65Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64%
(6:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 27 for -8 yards (95-D.Wyatt).
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 20 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%
(4:25) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 60 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(3:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams to DET 45 for 5 yards (7-Q.Walker).
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Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 13 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%
(1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 15 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to LA 24, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-X.Smith to LA 29 for 5 yards (22-J.Smith).
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Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 47%
(8:23) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to HOU 5, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%
(1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%
(13:21) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(11:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to LA 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 93%
(7:02) 7-C.Stroud up the middle to LA 17 for 2 yards (91-K.Turner).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 20 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 86%
(4:52) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(:57) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(6:46) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to HOU 14, Center-47-A.Ward. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 24 for 10 yards (51-T.Reeder).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 37%
(2:07) 6-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to LA 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 64%
(12:13) 42-E.Evans punts 34 yards to HOU 5, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 72%
(9:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LA 18, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for 16 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale).
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Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LAC 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
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Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%
(6:10) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LAC 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-20-N.Williams.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 90Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 65%
(4:40) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to KC 34, Center-41-R.Lovato. 81-N.Remigio to KC 42 for 8 yards (43-T.Dye; 53-D.Phillips).
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Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(3:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 16 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%
(13:50) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. Penalty on KC-2-J.Williams, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(12:12) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right end to KC 49 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley; 32-A.Gilman).
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 79%
(8:45) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt pushed ob at LAC 26 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley).
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Q2 KC 4th & 17 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%
(4:53) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%
(:49) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q2 KC 4th & 17 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 62%
(:03) 7-H.Butker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:08) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to KC 21, Center-41-R.Lovato. 81-N.Remigio to KC 20 for -1 yards (36-J.Taylor).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 65Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(5:46) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 39 for 4 yards (32-N.Bolton). KC-23-D.Tranquill was injured during the play.
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Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 58 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(3:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to LAC 9 for 49 yards (2-E.Molden) [52-K.Mack].
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Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 9 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%
(2:37) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 31%
(10:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to LV 5, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.
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Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(14:21) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to NE 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-M.Jones to NE 26 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson).
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Q2 NE 4th & 17 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%
(9:11) 36-A.Borregales 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(7:49) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to NE 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
-
Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%
(2:00) 36-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 71%
(:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to LV 26, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(8:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to LV 20, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-44-K.Chaisson.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 20 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(6:33) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback. PENALTY on LV-49-C.Snowden, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 20.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(4:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to LV 13, Center-47-J.Ashby. 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 30 for 17 yards (51-J.Gibbens). PENALTY on LV-44-T.Eichenberg, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 26.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 77%
(:56) 8-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 33%
(13:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to LV 12, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 64%
(9:25) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to NE 30 for 8 yards (53-C.Elliss).
-
Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 91%
(6:50) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 56 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(4:53) 17-B.Baringer punts 21 yards to LV 35, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 39 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%
(1:55) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 53 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 27%
(1:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to 50 for 3 yards (36-K.Kelly).
-
Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(10:41) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 14 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(6:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to IND 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
-
Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 57%
(2:42) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 1-J.Downs to MIA 36 for 6 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).
-
Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%
(:03) 3-S.Shrader 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
-
Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(7:33) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%
(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 80-T.Conner.
-
Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 47%
(2:16) (Shotgun) 21-D.Giddens up the middle to MIA 40 for 6 yards (20-J.Brooks; 25-T.Dodson).
-
Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 17Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%
(12:11) 17-D.Jones right guard to MIA 16 for 1 yard (15-Ja.Phillips).
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(6:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%
(2:28) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 58%
(12:58) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to CHI 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 39 for 22 yards (55-E.Wilson; 42-A.DePaola).
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(5:04) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 25 for 7 yards (15-D.Turner; 37-T.Thomas).
-
Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:04) 19-T.Taylor punts 39 yards to MIN 19, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%
(12:51) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
-
Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 88%
(8:59) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Moore.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EPp(convert) 74%
(6:58) 17-R.Wright punts 31 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
-
Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(6:03) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 24 for 9 yards (92-D.Hardy; 33-J.Jones).
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:39) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to CHI 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 41 for 8 yards (13-T.Felton).
-
Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%
(:28) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
-
Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:41) 19-T.Taylor punts 47 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to CHI 49 for 20 yards (36-J.Owens).
-
Q3 MIN 4th & 20 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(10:18) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to CHI 30, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 36 for 6 yards (13-T.Felton). PENALTY on CHI-43-C.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.
-
Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:27) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to MIN 6, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 23 for 17 yards (22-E.Hicks).
-
Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 65%
(5:53) 17-R.Wright punts 45 yards to CHI 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 76%
(15:00) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(10:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to MIN 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to 50 for 22 yards (22-E.Hicks; 46-S.Daly).
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:38) 19-T.Taylor punts 25 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 69 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(:16) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to CHI 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
-
Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:42) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 23 for 11 yards (35-P.Butler).
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(11:13) 12-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to WAS 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton). PENALTY on WAS-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 21.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%
(14:00) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(13:17) 10-T.Way punts 64 yards to NYG 5, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 15 for 10 yards (57-N.Bellore).
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 76Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EPp(convert) 72%
(11:47) 12-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to WAS 42, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(12:33) 12-J.Gillan punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:28) 10-T.Way punts 31 yards to NYG 29, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to WAS 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 49%
(7:12) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 71Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(5:43) 3-R.Wilson right guard to NYG 31 for 2 yards (92-D.Armstrong).
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 66%
(1:47) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
-
Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.06 EPp(convert) 74% p(FG) 30%
(14:19) 10-T.Way punts 42 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 12 for 3 yards (80-C.Yankoff).
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 30%
(12:14) 12-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 99%
(2:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson.
-
Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%
(9:19) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 67%
(13:30) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:54) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to NYJ 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 3-X.Gipson.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 76%
(2:59) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
-
Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:15) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to NYJ 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 3-X.Gipson.
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 57%
(11:37) 14-A.McNamara punts 39 yards to PIT 38, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-47-A.Beck. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 38.
-
Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 32 for 19 yards (28-M.Killebrew).
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(7:06) 7-J.Fields right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-76-J.Simpson was injured during the play.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 74 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(3:21) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to PIT 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 42 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%
(1:08) 9-C.Boswell 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 62 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (5-J.Ramsey). NYJ-5-G.Wilson was injured during the play.
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 39%
(12:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to SF 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-81-E.Saubert. PENALTY on SF-27-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SF 10.
-
Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(12:15) 7-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 30 for 12 yards (48-T.Bethune). PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 30.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(11:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to SF 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 14 for 6 yards (38-B.Russell, 44-C.Surratt).
-
Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:11) 7-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(6:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to SF 35, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 33. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at SF 34 for 1 yard (28-N.Pritchett).
-
Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%
(1:00) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 56%
(10:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to SF 7, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 25 for 18 yards (81-E.Saubert).
-
Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 80%
(4:33) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 89-L.Farrell to SEA 26 for 4 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
-
Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 18Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 93%
(2:21) 4-J.Moody 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-J.Love), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at SEA 23. 0-D.Lawrence to SEA 31 for 8 yards (68-C.McKivitz).
-
Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 14Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%
(11:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SEA 8 for 6 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
-
Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%
(9:45) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(8:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to SF 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at SF 30 for 14 yards (88-A.Barner).
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 19 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%
(3:28) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ATL 18, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 60%
(6:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to TB 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 87Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 53%
(4:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to ATL 26, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 38 for 12 yards (41-K.Kieft).
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(3:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to TB 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 64Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 75%
(:22) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans to TB 42 for 6 yards (24-A.Terrell).
-
Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%
(10:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
-
Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%
(9:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to TB 47 for no gain (0-Y.Diaby).
-
Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to TB 25 for 2 yards (90-L.Hall).
-
Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%
(:57) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 62 yards to ATL 21, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 38 for 17 yards (87-P.Durham; 57-J.Bullock).
-
Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%
(11:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
-
Q3 ATL 4th & 17 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(9:57) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to TB 14, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-K.Johnson to ATL 32 for 54 yards (13-B.Pinion).
-
Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%
(:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 35%
(11:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ATL 9, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 34-R.McCloud.
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 3 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%
(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 2 for 1 yard (8-S.Dennis). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 1 for 2 yards (8-S.Dennis).
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 4 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 76%
(12:03) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q1 DEN 4th & 15 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 91%
(8:39) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 18 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(5:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
-
Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 57%
(11:48) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to TEN 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 83Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 72%
(9:42) 3-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 36 for 18 yards (3-J.Hekker).
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%
(2:19) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 63% p(FG) 27%
(:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to TEN 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 16 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(:39) 3-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to DEN 45, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims to TEN 38 for 17 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson).
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Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EPp(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%
(11:59) 6-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%
(4:20) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 25%
(15:00) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 46 yards to TEN 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 17-C.Dike to TEN 19 for 12 yards (5-T.Sherfield). PENALTY on TEN-52-J.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 19.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EPp(convert) 70%
(11:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-54-D.Mausi at DEN 24.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(6:48) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims to DEN 37 for 12 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson; 92-J.Harrell).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(5:11) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 46 for no gain (93-T.Sweat). (Virtual Measurement).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 46 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%
(4:16) 3-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 36 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.10 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%
(1:05) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Mims.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 64 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 25 for -11 yards (29-J.McMillian). FUMBLES (29-J.McMillian) [29-J.McMillian], RECOVERED by DEN-23-J.Barron at TEN 34.