Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 41%
(7:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to BAL 41 for 4 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
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Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 91%
(5:44) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 65%
(14:20) 74-J.Taylor and 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to BAL 34 for 2 yards (91-B.Okoye).
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Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(10:03) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(6:58) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to KC 29, Center-46-N.Moore. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 44 for 15 yards (32-T.Simpson).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 75%
(3:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right [56-G.Karlaftis].
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Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 62%
(:31) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%
(7:26) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(1:10) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 76Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(14:27) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass incomplete short right.
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Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%
(13:20) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 62Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59%
(12:33) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 47 for 9 yards (21-J.Hicks).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 67%
(10:18) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 35 for no gain (22-T.McDuffie).
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Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 41%
(5:45) 29-K.Hunt right guard to BAL 42 for 3 yards (45-M.Green).
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Q4 KC 4th & 19 at the 51 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 26%
(3:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 37 yards to BAL 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
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Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(9:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to CAR 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 23 for 8 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 49%
(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 11 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 54%
(3:05) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 64%
(9:59) 10-R.Fitzgerald 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(4:23) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones to CAR 14 for 61 yards (6-S.Martin).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:36) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NE 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
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Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to CAR 34, Center-47-J.Ashby. 13-H.Renfrow to CAR 47 for 13 yards (41-B.Schooler; 42-D.Harris).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 69%
(6:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan.
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Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 50%
(4:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to CAR 3, Center-47-J.Ashby. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 1 for -2 yards (41-B.Schooler).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(2:34) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to NE 40, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones to CAR 41 for 19 yards (48-T.Incoom; 53-C.Cherelus).
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Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 71%
(:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at CAR 4 for 30 yards (2-M.Jackson).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 54%
(10:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle [90-C.Barmore]. Penalty on CAR-79-I.Ekwonu, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EPp(convert) 61% p(FG) 29%
(8:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to CAR 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 84-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 53%
(13:24) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to LV 18, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-T.Tucker to LV 25 for 7 yards (36-J.Owens; 92-D.Hardy).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%
(9:58) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 65Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(7:21) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 30 for -5 yards (97-A.Billings, 44-N.Sewell). FUMBLES (44-N.Sewell), touched at LV 24, RECOVERED by CHI-29-T.Stevenson at LV 20.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(13:33) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 47 for 7 yards (11-J.Chinn).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 75%
(:58) 8-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(3:43) 19-T.Taylor punts 62 yards to LV 2, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-36-J.Owens. PENALTY on LV-44-T.Eichenberg, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at LV 2.
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Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 92Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 58%
(1:22) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to CHI 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Duvernay to LV 49 for 19 yards (51-M.Koonce).
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Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(6:48) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 36 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 71%
(:38) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-J.Blackwell), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%
(9:11) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 62%
(6:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback. PENALTY on CIN-25-T.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(4:30) 8-R.Rehkow punts 24 yards to DEN 36, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(12:01) 8-R.Rehkow punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(8:24) 8-R.Rehkow punts 69 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-M.Mims to DEN 30 for 13 yards (50-S.Heyward; 37-P.Jules).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(2:04) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 44-D.Knight at CIN -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:24) 8-R.Rehkow punts 63 yards to DEN 16, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-M.Mims to DEN 20 for 4 yards (37-P.Jules).
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Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:44) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 42 yards to CIN 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-C.Jones ran ob at CIN 30 for 16 yards (45-N.Adkins; 50-G.Wallow).
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Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 60%
(11:08) 8-R.Rehkow punts 47 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Fair Catch Interference, 0 yards, enforced at DEN 15.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(6:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 17 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%
(3:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to DEN 7, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to CIN 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 82-M.Tinsley.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 16 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:21) 8-R.Rehkow punts 61 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-M.Mims to DEN 24 for 7 yards (50-S.Heyward).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 58 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(3:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 39 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.
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Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 39%
(12:53) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to CLE 12, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%
(5:41) 98-A.Huntington and 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%
(14:20) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(9:19) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to CLE 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 83Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EPp(convert) 71%
(7:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to DET 39, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(6:10) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to CLE 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 2-D.Carter MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 19.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to DET 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond to DET 16 for -1 yards (28-T.Avery).
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Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 62%
(:12) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 35%
(12:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DET 5, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond to DET 10 for 5 yards (30-D.Bush).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%
(6:47) 25-A.Szmyt 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 53%
(5:23) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to CLE 16, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 16 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 67%
(1:30) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 89%
(14:55) 0-J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at CLE 23 for 1 yard (30-D.Bush).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(13:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to DET 35, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-25-J.Saylors was injured during the play.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(12:55) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to DET 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 30%
(9:08) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CLE 6, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: DET-25-J.Saylors has returned to the game.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 62 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(2:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DET 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond to DET 21 for 5 yards (17-J.Baker; 28-T.Avery).
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Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(8:10) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to GB 15, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 0-M.Golden.
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Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(4:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to DAL 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:31) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to GB 23, Center-44-T.Sieg. 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 32 for 9 yards (40-H.Luepke).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(8:42) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to GB 38, Center-44-T.Sieg. 0-M.Golden to GB 40 for 2 yards (35-M.Liufau).
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Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 50%
(5:59) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to DAL 5, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-55-K.Enagbare.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 14 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:43) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to GB 19, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-R.Doubs ran ob at GB 24 for 5 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(8:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-G.Pickens to GB 45 for 12 yards (24-C.Valentine).
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Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%
(7:36) 16-J.Karty 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q1 IND 4th & 16 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%
(5:00) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(2:27) 9-M.Stafford right guard to LA 46 for 1 yard (97-L.Latu; 44-Z.Franklin). Indianapolis challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford right guard to LA 45 for no gain (97-L.Latu; 44-Z.Franklin).
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Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(12:23) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 LA 4th & 16 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%
(5:24) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q2 IND 4th & 14 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(2:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LA 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
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Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 37%
(12:40) 42-E.Evans punts 32 yards to IND 18, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
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Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:43) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to IND 4, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-A.Gould to IND 19 for 15 yards (48-O.Speights; 47-A.Ward).
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Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to LA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(6:30) 42-E.Evans punts 68 yards to IND 7, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-A.Gould to IND 23 for 16 yards (56-S.Dolac).
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Q3 IND 4th & 12 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(4:49) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to LA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-X.Smith to LA 27 for no gain (16-A.Dulin).
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Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 63%
(2:49) 42-E.Evans punts 55 yards to IND 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
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Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%
(9:02) 3-S.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 9 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%
(3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(8:36) 18-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 57%
(3:49) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to SF 37 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 13 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 57%
(1:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
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Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 52%
(3:33) 7-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(2:37) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to SF 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-25-R.Lane. PENALTY on JAX-25-R.Lane, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 26.
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Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(:43) 18-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(:02) 39-C.Little 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(12:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to SF 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 9-S.Moore to SF 27 for 16 yards (46-R.Matiscik).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 49%
(6:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%
(4:11) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(2:40) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-P.Washington for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 26Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 86%
(14:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.Robinson.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 63%
(12:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to SF 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 29 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 81%
(3:35) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:44) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to NYG 11, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 46%
(5:47) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to NYG 1, Center-41-R.Lovato, downed by LAC-24-B.St-Juste.
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(2:07) 12-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to LAC 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 33 for 11 yards (24-D.Belton).
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(13:52) 99-J.McAtamney 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%
(8:10) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. PENALTY on LAC-74-A.Deculus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(1:56) 99-J.McAtamney 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 17 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(11:00) 12-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to LAC 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 15 for 6 yards (85-C.Manhertz; 47-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LAC 9.
-
Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:05) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to NYG 7, Center-41-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 22 for 15 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on NYG-31-N.Jones, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at NYG 7. Penalty on NYG-54-S.Bozeman, Offensive Holding, declined.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 13 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:24) 12-J.Gillan punts 69 yards to LAC 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 41 for 11 yards (24-D.Belton; 31-N.Jones).
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 12 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 59%
(12:24) 12-J.Gillan punts 31 yards to LAC 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 83Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EPp(convert) 67%
(11:31) 16-J.Scott punts 31 yards to LAC 48, Center-41-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 99%
(5:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson (32-A.Gilman).
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 53 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%
(:31) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to LAC 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 16 for 3 yards (85-C.Manhertz).
-
Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(13:00) 3-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 4-M.Price to MIN 26 for 13 yards (33-J.Sawyer; 15-B.Skowronek).
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 17 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%
(6:28) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN-75-B.O'Neill was injured during the play.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(8:02) 27-J.Mason right tackle to PIT 45 for 9 yards (25-D.Elliott).
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%
(1:42) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is BLOCKED (2-I.Rodgers), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman, RECOVERED by MIN-0-I.Pace at MIN 9.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(:16) 16-W.Reichard 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
-
Q3 MIN 4th & 19 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(13:18) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to PIT 29, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-C.Austin to PIT 26 for -3 yards (13-T.Felton; 37-T.Thomas).
-
Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(11:11) 3-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to MIN 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 4-M.Price to MIN 20 for no gain (15-B.Skowronek). PENALTY on MIN-24-J.Ward, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 20.
-
Q3 MIN 4th & 19 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(:47) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to PIT 42, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at MIN 46 for 12 yards (98-B.Richter).
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%
(11:21) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 99%
(4:14) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell left guard to MIN 1 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy).
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(2:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 45 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 45%
(1:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 17 at the 68 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 28%
(:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Addison (25-D.Elliott).
-
Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 38%
(11:24) 32-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-13-V.Jones.
-
Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(8:51) 16-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to NO 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on BUF-69-R.Ferguson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 41.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 67%
(5:36) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 33%
(12:59) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74% p(FG) 33%
(12:56) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to 50 for -1 yards (96-C.Granderson).
-
Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%
(8:56) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 49%
(5:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to BUF 41 for 2 yards (27-T.White).
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 17 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%
(2:12) 15-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: BUF-16-C.Johnston has returned to the game.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 61 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(1:51) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 31 for -8 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), touched at NO 33, recovered by NO-78-E.McCoy at NO 34.
-
Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 77%
(10:55) 47-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 60%
(4:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at MIA 47 for -11 yards (25-T.Dodson). FUMBLES (25-T.Dodson) [25-T.Dodson], RECOVERED by MIA-15-Ja.Phillips at NYJ 47. 15-Ja.Phillips to NYJ 43 for 4 yards (70-A.Membou).
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%
(2:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 27 yards to NYJ 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 40%
(9:36) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 21%
(2:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 83Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 58%
(1:37) 16-J.Bailey punts 64 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 37 for 18 yards (11-D.Trader).
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 50%
(11:32) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to NYJ 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(7:13) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-82-A.Smith.
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%
(3:36) 47-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 45 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%
(:13) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NYJ 1, impetus ends at NYJ 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-53-C.Goode.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%
(12:59) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 36-C.Latu, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by PHI-21-S.Brown at TB 35. 21-S.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 64%
(11:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to PHI 27, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 18 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 89%
(:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 56%
(12:49) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to TB 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson to TB 16 for 5 yards (83-K.Granson; 54-J.Trotter).
-
Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(9:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 18 yards to PHI 43, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-34-P.Nickerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 43.
-
Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(5:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PHI 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 25 for 3 yards (98-A.Nelson).
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 11 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%
(1:01) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
-
Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 47Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 39%
(:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 19 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:48) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to TB 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at PHI 40 for 46 yards (83-K.Granson).
-
Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 74%
(11:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Shepard (7-K.Ringo).
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 55%
(10:11) 10-B.Mann punts 36 yards to TB 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 17 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(8:21) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to TB 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson ran ob at TB 17 for 13 yards (36-C.Latu; 21-S.Brown).
-
Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 57%
(12:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:00) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to TB 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson to PHI 47 for 27 yards (22-M.McWilliams).
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 64%
(6:18) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to TB 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson to TB 22 for 2 yards (21-S.Brown).
-
Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 69 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(4:05) 1-R.White left end to TB 33 for 2 yards (33-C.DeJean).
-
Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 37 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 65%
(1:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to PHI 35 for 2 yards (34-P.Nickerson). FUMBLES (34-P.Nickerson), ball out of bounds at PHI 32. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to PHI 35 for 2 yards (34-P.Nickerson).
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 66 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 35%
(:06) (Punt formation) 10-B.Mann right end tackled in End Zone for -34 yards, SAFETY (26-K.Merriweather).
-
Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:25) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 42%
(9:07) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right tackle to ARI 48 for no gain (2-Ma.Wilson, 27-A.Davis-Gaither).
-
Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(4:41) 38-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
-
Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(15:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Horton to SEA 26 for 8 yards (44-O.Pappoe; 36-K.Crawford).
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to ARI 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 27 for 15 yards (28-N.Pritchett).
-
Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EPp(convert) 74%
(3:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Horton to SEA 10 for 2 yards (36-K.Crawford; 50-C.Simon).
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 87%
(9:01) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q3 ARI 4th & 14 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%
(6:33) 12-B.Gillikin punts 40 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to ARI 38, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
-
Q3 ARI 4th & 17 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 64%
(1:44) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 13 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(9:37) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 35 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 73%
(3:21) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ** Injury Update: ARI-93-C.Campbell has returned to the game.
-
Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 51 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 35%
(3:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SEA 46 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe).
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%
(11:44) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(9:47) 7-C.Stroud up the middle to HOU 42 for 2 yards (50-C.Barton).
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 84%
(4:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(3:13) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 88%
(13:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 30%
(8:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to TEN 10, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(7:54) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to HOU 37, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 37 for no gain (26-M.Harris).
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(5:14) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 27-W.Marks up the middle to HOU 48 for 2 yards (28-Q.Diggs, 33-C.Gray).
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 17 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 42%
(1:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 25 yards to TEN 23, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%
(:03) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 71%
(10:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 50%
(7:54) 3-J.Hekker punts 27 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
-
Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 71%
(1:57) 7-C.Stroud left tackle to TEN 34 for 2 yards (53-J.Ward).
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 69Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(6:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 5-E.Ayomanor (72-T.Togiai).
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 78 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(4:04) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 28 for no gain (26-M.Harris).
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 66 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(2:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 64 yards to TEN 2, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%
(10:49) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q1 WAS 4th & 16 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:09) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to ATL 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 88%
(4:28) 25-T.Allgeier right guard to WAS 22 for 3 yards (54-B.Wagner).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%
(12:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel pushed ob at ATL 6 for 4 yards (20-D.Alford).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%
(5:29) 16-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. ** Injury Update: ATL-28-M.Ford has returned to the game.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%
(2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to WAS 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-J.Lane MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 8.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 14 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:36) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to ATL 25, impetus ends at ATL 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 28-M.Ford to ATL 25 for no gain.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to WAS 24, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-J.Lane MUFFS catch, recovered by WAS-34-A.Hamilton at WAS 24. 34-A.Hamilton to WAS 27 for 3 yards (22-C.Phillips).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%
(10:16) 16-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%
(4:26) 16-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 89%
(8:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-L.Floyd].
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Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 8 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(2:00) 39-J.Romo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.